441
FXUS63 KEAX 141744
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Low end chances (15%-25%) for showers and a few thunderstorms
  Sunday along and east of Highway 65.

* Chances (30%-40%) for showers and a few thunderstorms
  Wednesday and Thursday over eastern Kansas and western
  Missouri. No hazardous weather expected.

* Above normal temperatures expected the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Early this morning the 500mb remnant low from Francine is located
over northeastern Arkansas. This low will move very slowly east to
the northern Mississippi/Alabama border by tonight. This will
continue to push wrap around cloud cover into the area today
although conditions will remain dry. Expect highs to reach the low
to mid 80s. Sunday the upper low associated with the remnants of
Francine will become elongated across the southeastern CONUS and
extending back into the eastern CWA due o a Rex block over the
eastern CONUS. A 700 mb vort max is expected to move through the
eastern CWA on Sunday which will bring low end chances (15%-25%) for
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will range
from the low to mid 80s.

Monday and Tuesday will be a transitional period for the upper level
pattern as the Rex block over the eastern CONUS breaks down and we
move to a Omega blocking pattern with a upper low over the Ohio
River Valley and another over California by Wednesday. Although lead
shortwaves will try to reach the western CWA Monday and Tuesday
conditions are expected to remain dry with surface high pressure in
control. High Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Again, by Wednesday the upper level pattern will feature a omega
block with the aforementioned upper lows of the Ohio River Valley
and California. Over the local region will exist weak upper level
ridging. Upper level lead shortwaves from the California low as it
moves into the Great Basin Wednesday into Thursday will bring the
chance for showers and thunderstorms into the western CWA. The model
blend has introduced 30-40% POPs for Wednesday and Thursday however
that may be bullish considering the strengthening upper level
ridge over the region and the persistence of recent drought
conditions. Highs Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s
however, height rises on Thursday will aid in highs reaching the
mid 80s to near 90.

Friday into Saturday the upper level low over the Great Basin moves
through the eastern Rockies and into the western Plains becoming an
open wave which eventually breaks down the upper level ridge in
place. This may finally bring the next real chance for showers and
thunderstorms next weekend. Highs Friday will remain in the mid 80s
to near 90 before finally abating a bit by Saturday as better storm
chances return with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

MVFR stratus will continue to scatter out over the next few
hours with scattered cu and cirrus for the remainder of the
afternoon. Winds will persist out of the east/southeast today,
mainly 10 mph or below. Mostly clear skies should continue into
the overnight hours as surface ridging stalls to our northeast.
Some shallow ground fog could develop based off a few forecast
soundings, but confidence in development and how widespread it
will be this far west remains low, so kept it out of the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Griesemer