Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
729 FXUS66 KEKA 221210 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 510 AM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot inland temperatures will peak today. Temperatures will moderate on Sunday, but will remain hot and above average into mid next week. A late season trough will further moderate inland temperatures mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION...Stratus remains embedded from Del Norte, down the coast, and up the Eel River Delta. Not much clearing is anticipated in these areas today, but being slightly more shallow, the stratus is not pushing as far inland as yesterday. Daytime highs in the interior valleys will be above normal and hot today, up to 102, creating a moderate heat risk. A NE Pacific trough will deliver a weak and dry frontal boundary this evening. This will act to deepen the marine layer and likely turn on the light drizzle ingredients robustly tonight. The ridge in place will weaken under the trough, but a Four Corners area high pressure area will generally maintain the inland heat 5 to 9 degrees above normal through Tuesday. A lower latitude trough continues to be modeled to push through the Pacific NW late Wednesday or Thursday. The trough will be dry for N CA, but will lower inland temperatures further to below climatological norms. This system does look to increase gusty westerly to northwesterly winds and potentially create some localized fire weather concerns. NBM holds a 30 to 50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph through and over favorable terrain in Lake County on Wednesday. /JJW && .AVIATION...12Z TAF ACV/CEC...Coastal stratus is currently holding strong early this morning from the Oregon boarder until Cape Mendocino. Low ceilings under 1000ft are expected to remain through the early morning hours until about midday with guidance suggesting close to 80% confidence of ceilings >500ft at both terminals. However, by the afternoon model guidance is showing only a 20-30% probability of marine stratus ceilings remaining under 2000ft within the terminal vicinities. HREF guidance shows this marine layer momentarily clearing around 18-20Z before returning around sunset close to 0400Z and remaining through tomorrow evening. Thus, LIFR conditions will persist a little bit longer before breaking up then possibly returning in the evening. Light (>15kt) breezes from the north- northwest are forecasted as well. UKI...The marine layer situated over the San Francisco Bay shows little chance of flowing north up the Russian River tonight due to minimal southerly flow in the valley. This means more summer conditions and VFR conditions will be present at UKI for today. Strong ridgetop winds could possibly mix down in the terminal space leading to periodic gusts, yet confidence on this occurring is minimal and thus not represented in the TAFs. thus VFR will prevail at this terminal. Northwest winds will likely produce the occasional gust this afternoon in the 15 kt area. Not expecting much advance of stratus up the valley from the south tonight, but hi-res MOS guidance does show very light southerly winds at the terminal tonight, so confidence on this will continue to improve in the coming hours. && .MARINE...Strong north winds are remaining in our area through the weekend. The strongest of these winds is forecasted to be south of Cape Mendocino with a 50% chance of gust +50mph according to model guidance. These powerful winds will create hazardous sea conditions for the southern waters through the weekend. The northern waters are forecasted to diminish as the day goes on except with spotty dangerous conditions downwind of Cape Blanco, yet spacial and temporal coverage on these conditions is low and short-lived. As we enter the weekend, conditions in all the coastal waters will become warrant a small craft advisory. A gale warning in the southern waters could possibly return Sunday morning with areas of probable (40-70%) gusts over 55mph. Next week, a northwesterly swell around 5ft and a southerly 2ft swell will enter the coastal waters, in turn changing the current wind-wave-driven conditions we`ve experienced so far this week into a more dynamic maritime environment. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ475. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png