Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
946 AXPZ20 KNHC 310932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 08N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 08N to 11N. Some slow development of this system is possible through the weekend and early next week while it moves slowly westward well to the south of the coast of Mexico. It has a low probability of tropical cyclone development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 10N85W to 09N100W to 08N105W to 09N115W. The ITCZ extends from 09N115W to 08N125W to 08N132W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 127W and 132W, and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 132W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 118W and 123W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 86W and 89W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over north central Mexico continues to support moderate to locally fresh winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and to around 7 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail off the Baja California peninsula through early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open waters. Seas will build to 9 ft in long period NW swell off of Baja California Norte tonight through Mon. Hazy conditions may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh east gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the Gulf of Papagayo, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Hazy conditions continue off the Central American coast due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm or less. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen just offshore northern Costa Rica and extreme southern Nicaragua. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through early Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central American offshore waters the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to near 20N and W of 120W. Northerly swell is producing seas of 8-9 ft to the waters N of 28N between 118W and 125W. Moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are elsewhere N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast, little change is expected to the current conditions over much of the area the next few days. $$ Aguirre