470
FXUS64 KEPZ 180531
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1131 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Breezy southwest winds will keep temperatures warm and push
moisture to our east through the rest of the week. Slight rain
chances over the Sacramento Mountains on Friday before another
Pacific low brings clear and mild weather next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper low centered over Yellowstone this evening with the trough
axis swinging across the Southern Rockies. Winds have been breezy
out of the southwest today with gusts in the 25-35 mph range
across southern New Mexico. Vort max rotating around the system
will aid in thunderstorm development across portions of eastern
New Mexico today and perhaps the far eastern fringes of Hudspeth
County TX. Much drier air exists behind the Pacific boundary
which will quickly erode moisture along the Rio Grande valley this
evening and bring an end to rain chances area wide through the
middle part of the work week. Winds will also settle down after
sunset tonight.

Slight cool down on Wednesday with lowland highs in the lower
90s, however southwest flow will keep us slightly above normal for
mid-September each day into the weekend. Almost Spring-like
weather pattern with a moisture boundary fixed east of the I-25
corridor and sustained southwest flow across the US Southwest
keeping it at bay. Global models do suggest slight intrusions
Thursday and Friday which may allow for some very spotty storm
chances, mostly for the Sacramento Mountains. Overall, rain
chances for the next 7 days are slim and focused east of the Rio
Grande.

Good agreement in another Pacific low sweeping across the Central
Rockies on Saturday, with dry air at the base of the system and
clear, mild weather through next weekend. While temperatures won`t
change too much (El Paso`s high remains 88-92 degrees), it will
feel more fall-like especially during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Our ceilings across
the area tonight are unlimited and those clear skies will continue
throughout the day on Wednesday. Our winds are settling down and we
will have generally light winds tonight. The low end gusty
southwesterly winds look to return on Thursday. Should not be too
strong will drop off after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Lighter southwest flow Wednesday and Thursday with 20-ft speeds
10 to 15 mph each afternoon. Good to Very Good smoke ventilation
with transport to the NE. Mostly clear skies with no rain chances
through Thursday. Midday RH 15-25%. Higher moisture will exist to
the east, keeping RH higher over Lincoln National Forest. Friday
and Saturday look to be more breezy as another Pacific low crosses
the Central Rockies.

Fuel conditions remain drier than normal for mid-September with
drought status still in place. The rest of September looks mostly
dry and warm for southern New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  70  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            89  64  89  65 /  10  20   0   0
Las Cruces               92  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               90  60  90  62 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               67  46  67  48 /  20  10  10  10
Truth or Consequences    88  58  88  58 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              79  53  80  54 /  30   0   0   0
Deming                   90  57  89  58 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                85  57  86  57 /  20   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       92  68  90  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                93  64  94  64 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             95  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               86  62  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                   93  66  93  66 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           90  66  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            89  60  89  61 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  57  90  58 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 91  62  89  62 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                90  62  88  62 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  80  51  80  53 /  30  10  10  10
Mescalero                77  49  78  51 /  30   0  10  10
Timberon                 77  50  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
Winston                  80  45  81  47 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro                86  54  86  55 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                88  55  88  56 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             77  47  80  48 /  30   0   0   0
Hurley                   83  52  83  53 /  20   0   0   0
Cliff                    86  50  88  50 /  40   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  52  80  53 /  50   0   0   0
Faywood                  83  55  83  55 /  20   0   0   0
Animas                   87  57  88  56 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                  87  57  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           87  55  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               80  54  81  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen