513
FXUS64 KEPZ 301152
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
552 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Overall, continued dry and very warm. For most of the area, there
is little or no chance of rain through Wednesday. Some moisture
intrusion could kick off a stray thunderstorm over the Sacramento
Mtns and eastern Hudspeth County Friday and Saturday afternoons.
Temperatures will remain well above normal, with Monday through
Wednesday of next week looking the hottest, with many lowland
sites venturing into triple digit high temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Looking at IR satellite and surface obs, dry-line still extending
from about Sierra Blanca,TX up to just east of the Sacramento Mtns
and Ruidoso. Some moisture has broken off up into southern Otero
County too. HRRR initializes this well, and much like yesterday,
erodes this moisture out east of CWA by 16Z-18Z. Always the
slightest of chance of a stray afternoon thunderstorm, but dry air
looks like it is in place by prime heating time.

Otherwise, overall pattern for the forecast period looks much the
same as recent days. Upper ridge is now well east of our area as
upper low moves into the northern Rockies. Our area will sit at
the bottom of the associated trough; not much impact other than
afternoon breezes and perhaps a degree or two of cooling. Models
continue to show the dry-line intrusion into the far eastern CWA
again Friday and Saturday afternoons. Did put low POPs in for much
of Otero and Hudsepth Counties, but too low to register in the
weather grids.

Dry west flow aloft will continue into about Monday with sub-
tropical high over Mexico gradually building northward over the
Desert Southwest and cutting off small low just west of the Baja.
Rising heights and H85 temps will allow us to heat up again
Saturday and beyond, with Tuesday and Wednesday looking to be the
hottest. Much of the lowlands should bump up into the triple
digits and El Paso and the valley downstream could see highs
approaching 105.

Just beyond the forecast period, still major difference between
GFS and ECMWF for Thursday. GFS strengthens aforementioned cut off
low much more than ECWMF and also closer to the CWA, bringing
healthy amount of mositure up through Mexico and a chance of
thunderstorms Thursday. ECMWF much weaker aloft and shows only
minor influx of moisture. Will have to watch how this trends over
the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Some SCT-
BKN080 buildups in the afternoon east of the Rio Grande Valley.
Surface winds west/northwest AOB 8 knots increasing to west
12-15G25 knots after 18Z. Winds diminishing to west/northwest AOB
8 knots after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Mainly dry and very warm pattern to continue through Monday for
most fire zones with elevated to near-critical conditions
persisting. Brief moisture intrusions into Otero and Hudspeth
Counties Friday and Saturday could provide some temporary relief
to those fire zones (NM113, TX56) with higher humidity, and just a
very slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm. Otherwise expect
continued breezy afternoons with temperatures running about 5 to
8 degrees above normal.

Min RHs: Lowlands 4-8% through Tuesday, except 6-12% eastern
Hudspeth and Otero Counties Friday and Saturday. Mountains 5-8%
Gila through Tuesday and 8-15% Sacramento Mtns through Saturday
diminishing to 5-10% Sunday through Tuesday. Vent rates very good
to excellent through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  98  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            93  62  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               97  62  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               94  58  96  59 /   0   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               75  43  76  42 /   0   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences    94  63  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              85  54  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   96  57  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                92  57  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       95  65  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                97  56  97  58 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock             99  60  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               89  59  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   98  63  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             95  58  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           95  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            94  54  95  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    96  57  97  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 94  63  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                93  58  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  88  48  85  45 /   0   0  10  10
Mescalero                85  46  85  45 /   0   0  10  10
Timberon                 84  45  83  44 /   0   0  10  10
Winston                  88  52  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                92  59  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                93  52  94  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             89  50  90  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   90  52  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    94  42  96  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               88  37  90  37 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  89  56  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   93  56  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  93  58  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           93  57  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               87  56  89  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner