586
FXUS64 KEPZ 141943
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
143 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Warm conditions will continue with temperatures increasing to the
mid 90s to near 100 by Sunday. A passing storm system will bring
some showers and thunderstorms to mainly northern areas and
mountains on Thursday. Breezy to windy conditions are expected for
Sunday and, especially, Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

S/w ridge covers the southern half of NM extending into Mexico
this afternoon. Nevertheless the proximity of an UL low and some
mid-level moisture is fostering some showers across the Gila,
Black, and Sacramento Mountains. These will largely dissipate or
move into Alburquerque`s CWA by evening. A lightning strike cannot
be ruled out, but for the most part impacts will be minimal. The
ridge will slide to the east while the UL low meanders over AZ.
This will keep the mid-level moisture in place while keeping some
favorable dynamics over the northern half of NM. A few more
showers will be possible again over our mountains.

On Thursday the UL low begins to move east across NM while opening
up into a wave. Attendant moisture and cold pool dynamics will
bring rain and thunder chances to at least the northern half of
the CWA and especially our mountains. Instability will be meager
along with shear, but given pattern recognition I wouldn`t be
surprised by some small hail and/or gusty winds given the cold
temperatures aloft and high bases. If anyone is lucky to get
beneath any of these showers or thunderstorm, rainfall amounts are
expected to be light. The system will also kick up breezes.

The system kicks out of here Friday morning keeping us breezy on
Friday. Ridging will build in its wake allowing temperatures to
increase for the weekend. By Sunday, we`ll be on the western half
of the ridge, allowing southwest flow to further warm our
temperatures. We will be close to 100 for the first time in El
Paso on Sunday. This deep southwest flow is thanks to a sharp s/w
that will push across the state on Monday. GFS is more intense
with this trough passage, but either way, Monday looks very warm
to hot and at least breezy. If the GFS verifies, we could be
looking at widespread fire concerns. The Euro`s tamer decision
would keep conditions more elevated to critical.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Minimal to no aviation concerns expected today with VFR
conditions. Skies will be generally FEW-SCT250. Winds top out this
afternoon around 10 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots. Direction
will typically be from 230-270.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

No significant fire concerns anticipated for the next five days.
Mountains have a low chance for dry lightning this afternoon and
tomorrow, but chances for any individual location are less than 10
percent. Min RH values will be very dry for Wednesday with single
digit values, but a passing system will help improve moisture for
Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible as well
(20-50% chance) with the highest chance in the mountains. Rainfall
accumulations will be light, so isolated dry lightning cannot be
ruled out. Winds for Wednesday will top out around 10 MPH but will
increase to around 15 MPH for Thursday. This system exits by
Friday with increasingly warm and dry conditions expected in its
wake. It is a bit beyond the forecast window for fire, but Monday
will be particularly warm and dry. Winds are a bit uncertain, but
some guidance is forecasting widespread critical conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  92  65  87 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            60  86  59  81 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               57  91  57  85 /   0   0   0  20
Alamogordo               54  89  53  81 /   0   0   0  30
Cloudcroft               43  66  40  58 /   0   0   0  50
Truth or Consequences    57  87  56  78 /   0   0   0  30
Silver City              50  79  48  75 /   0   0   0  20
Deming                   53  89  53  83 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                52  86  52  83 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       62  89  61  84 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                54  91  56  85 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock             58  93  59  88 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               57  83  56  78 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   60  91  61  88 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             57  87  56  83 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           64  89  62  83 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range            52  89  51  82 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                    53  90  52  84 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                 60  88  58  84 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                55  88  55  81 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                  47  79  45  69 /   0   0   0  50
Mescalero                47  77  44  69 /   0   0   0  60
Timberon                 46  76  43  69 /   0   0   0  40
Winston                  48  78  46  72 /   0  10   0  40
Hillsboro                53  85  51  78 /   0   0   0  30
Spaceport                52  87  51  81 /   0   0   0  30
Lake Roberts             45  81  43  75 /   0  10  10  30
Hurley                   47  83  46  76 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                    50  86  50  81 /   0   0   0  20
Mule Creek               51  81  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                  51  82  50  77 /   0   0   0  20
Animas                   51  86  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  54  86  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  85  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               51  79  49  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown