006
FXUS64 KEWX 231930
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An upper level trough in the middle of the country has pushed the
subtropical ridge to the south and the 500mb flow is from the west-
southwest. A surface cold front has made it into our northern area
and is stretched from Temple to Rocksprings to the Big Bend.
Temperatures behind the front are in the 60s and 70s while on the
warm side they are in the 80s and 90s. The front seems to have lost
momentum, and we expect it to stall near where it currently is. It
is not producing much lift with only isolated showers in the
vicinity. The upper trough will push a little farther south tonight
adding better lift near the surface boundary. This will bring better
chances for showers and thunderstorms starting after midnight.
Better rain chances will progress from north to south through the
night and tomorrow. The better chances will be over the eastern half
of the area where there will be deeper moisture. The upper trough
will dig farther southeast Tuesday night and there will be lingering
low chances for rain across our CWA. Temperatures will be divided by
the front with cooler temperatures to the north and warmer to the
south. Time-wise there won`t be much change. Highs tomorrow will be
similar to today and lows both nights will be around the same.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Lingering showers behind a southward advancing cold front can be
expected through the day Wednesday. Per the latest 12Z run of the NBM
and NAM12km, the frontal boundary should be through all of South
Central Texas by 18Z Wednesday. Surface high pressure is expected to
settle into Central Texas on Thursday, setting up a couple of much
nicer days in the area. Highs will still be near normal, but humidity
will be much lower and more comfortable. As it stands, it doesn`t
appear as if dewpoints above 65 will be returning anytime soon.
Despite lower dewpoints, that will allow the atmosphere to mix out
quicker each day, resulting in highs remaining in the upper 80s to
around 90 through the weekend into early next week. With this pattern
change, expect seasonably mild and dry days through the end of
September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Convection along the Rio Grande near Del Rio continues and we have
opted to add a TEMPO group through 15Z with MVFR conditions in -SHRA.
By late morning, most of the activity should gradually move north of
DRT, so will carry VCSH for now. Elsewhere, we will mention a TEMPO
group through mid-morning for MVFR conditions along the I-35
corridor. Confidence in MVFR is a little lower at AUS and the
forecast may need to be adjusted pending observations. VFR is
expected at all sites this afternoon and evening. Low cloud
development is anticipated overnight into Tuesday morning. For now,
we will mention MVFR at AUS as some lower cigs may filter in behind a
weak cold front. We will mention low clouds in the remainder of our
TAF sites, but keep bases VFR for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  93  70  91 /  20  40  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  93  69  92 /  20  40  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  95  71  94 /  10  40  30  20
Burnet Muni Airport            69  90  68  87 /  30  30  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  90  68  89 /  30  30  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  93  71  94 /  10  30  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  93  68  92 /  10  40  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  92  69  90 /  10  30  30  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  93  73  93 /  10  30  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  74  94 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...05