422
FXUS63 KFGF 210840
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
340 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for hazardous weather impacts is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...Synopsis...

Things are progressing as forecast. 500 mb wave is near the
SK/MB/ND border at 08z and this will move east-northeast today
and be in NW Ontario north of Kenora by 21z today. The majority
of the showers will move ENE with it with lingering showers this
morning near the Canadian border. Cluster of showers and a few
t-storms continue to move NNE thru NW MN from Red Lake Falls to
Bemidji and Red Lake and these will continue to move toward
Baudette area by dawn.

As short wave departs, 850 mb moisture remains high enough to
keep clouds or to develop CU over NE ND and NW MN thru the day.
Lesser cloud cover and more sun WC MN and SE ND.

Look for a period of windy conditions 15-21z period behind the
cold front which will move through early to mid morning. WNW
winds look to gust to near 35 kts with mixed layer to around 810
mb from sounding at KGFK. Sustatined values look to be 20-25
kts. So overall just below advisory levels. It will be windiest
in E ND and less so as you go farther east.

Highs today low 60s northwest (DVL) to low 70s far
east/southeast (BJI/FFM) parts of the fcst area.


Skies clear tonight. High pressure center will be more in
western and central ND and thus coolest temps there. Expect
widespread 40-45 degree temps tonight, with locally colder spots
in the mid-upper 30s. Worst case could see a bit of frost late
tonight in a few colder spots such as Langdon or Cando but
doesnt appear to be sufficiently likely to warrant any headline
or mention in the weather grids.

Sunday and beyond thru next week is looking very nice. Warming u
with highs 75-80 much of next week as 500 mb ridge builds over
the area, esp that Wed-Fri period. A 500 mb short wave to bring
some mid clouds Tuesday afternoon/night but at this time any
shower chance should remain just north of the border.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR Conditions through the period with chances for showers in
the DVL vicinity tonight. Thunderstorms in west central MN
should stay south and east of our airports. Winds predominately
southerly tonight turning W/NW tomorrow morning increasing to
15kts gusting 25-35kts between 15-23Z. Ceilings could drop as
low as 030 to 040 but confidence remains that MVFR will not be
reached.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR/TT