Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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492 FXUS63 KFGF 191518 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1018 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - No impactful weather expected over the next seven days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The cold front in northwest MN is actively pushing east with stratus ahead of the immediate frontal zone. As any severe threat today will be along/ahead of this front, the presence of stratus would only delay initiation in our east, and by time it breaks up the front is timed to be out of our area, lowering confidence in deep/severe convection in our area. If it breaks up sooner and the front slows down there is still a narrow early afternoon window, but CAM trends do not currently support this. Otherwise, showers and non severe convection chances remain mainly in the Devils Lake basin through the afternoon (closer to the mid level circulation in Canada). UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Some weak showers have developed just west of Devils Lake near Harvey, ND. Looking at observations in the surrounding area it looks like nothing is hitting the ground. Some mid-level clouds are moving through the area ahead of the low for some morning cloudy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...Synopsis... An occluded upper low pushes off to the northeast into the Manitoba province today. As the departing low moves northeast it leaves an area of divergence to possibly produce showers along the Canadian border. Another shortwave creates more precipitation chances through the Sunday morning. Today: The departing low occludes as it starts to push northeast. This will push the front closer to the arrowhead and leave North Dakota fairly stable behind this front. However, there is a pocket of moisture in the northern valley that may create some light showers this afternoon and evening thanks to the overlapping area of divergence near the Canadian border as this low pressure peels off. These showers should dissipate as the sun goes down and sets for the day. The pressure gradient will just be tight enough to give us some gusty winds up to 30 mph if we mix up to the 925/850mb level tapping into those 25 knot winds. Friday and through the weekend: A brief period of drying will occur during the day Friday. The atmosphere will remain fairly stable as the Northern Plains enters a brief dry westerly flow. However, another shortwave starts to move in early Saturday morning and give us precipitation for Saturday with the most likely area being West central Minnesota. rainfall amounts currently look light but that could change slightly for better or worse in the next models runs as the amount of dry air from Friday`s westerly pattern is better analyzed. Sunday and Monday look dry as the Northern plains transition between a Northern and Westerly flow thanks to a low pressure system travels through the Central US. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period today. The pressure gradient will create peak wind gusts between 25 to 30 kts today. The winds will start to decrease to 10 to 15 kts when the sun goes down. Showers will be possible between 18z to 02z near the Canadian Border, however a couple models brought those showers near KGFK and KTVF. Not confident those showers will reach near KGFK and KTVF so they were left out of the TAFs. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MM/DJR DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...MM