671
FXUS65 KFGZ 281101
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
400 AM MST Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A lull in shower and thunderstorm development will
arrive today and Saturday, before moisture returns and brings an
active pattern back to the area by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier and more stable air will continue to stream
into Arizona from the west today and into the weekend. This is due
to a persistent trough over the Pacific Northwest, which has turned
mid-level flow back to westerly. This and increased boundary layer
winds are steadily mixing out our boundary layer moisture.

Small variations in the northern stream trough will allow flow to
turn more southerly at times over the next several days. These
variations will keep the moisture pool fairly close by and will not
completely scour us out. Because of this, we are keeping low-grade
PoPs in today and Saturday, before ramping back up again by Sunday.

By Sunday or Monday, the northern stream retreats and allows the
ridge to rebuild to our east and flow once again will reverse and
become southeasterly. Moisture returns enough to ramp back into a
low-medium grade Monsoon PoP scheme for most of next week. Will have
to watch the potential at the end of next week for an abnormally
warm and western positioned high pressure cell, this will end
precipitation chances if it evolves as progged.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 28/06Z through Saturday 29/06Z...Isolated showers
and thunderstorms lingering through 12Z from KSOW to the Four
Corners. Isolated showers and thunderstorms then redevelop after
18Z along and north of a KGCN-KINW-KSOW line. Erratic winds to 40
kts possible in and around showers/storms. Otherwise, light winds
overnight becoming southwest at 5-15 kts gusting to 20 kts Friday
afternoon. Winds diminishing Friday evening.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 29/06Z through Monday 01/06Z...Isolated showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday will become more widespread on
Sunday. Erratic winds to 40 kts possible in and around
showers/storms. Otherwise, afternoon southwest winds 5-15 kts
gusting to 20 kts with light winds at night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Notably drier weather
expected both days with only light, isolated showers or high based
thunderstorms over the LCR and White Mountains. Afternoon RHs remain
elevated today, then some locations at lower elevations will fall
into the teens Saturday. Overnight recoveries remain good. Breezy
southwest winds 10-20 mph both days.

Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture and thunderstorm chances begin to
increase again from Sunday into next week. Southwest winds 10-15 mph
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff