916
FXUS65 KFGZ 162139
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
240 PM MST Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest
winds to create critical fire weather conditions both today and
Monday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal today through
Wednesday, before warming again late in the week. A chance of
thunderstorms arrives by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A deepening trough over the northwestern United
States will affect our area through at least Tuesday. The primary
impacts will be dry and windy conditions, as well as with somewhat
cooler temperatures. The windiest days will be ahead of the trough
axis, today and especially Monday. Winds decrease after that, but
will stay breezy through at least Thursday, as remnants of the
trough linger over the region.

Current RFW products look fine, some zones are marginal at best, we
will not make changes and a Wind Advisory was added for Monday. The
bottom line is that it has not rained in weeks and any increase in
wind speeds combined with our dry boundary layer will lead to
dangerous FWX conditions.

There is now a distinct possibility that sustained southerly or
southwesterly flow, along with a building ridge late this week, will
push the Monsoon boundary layer into Arizona by next weekend, maybe
even by Friday. This could lead to an outbreak of dry, high-based
thunderstorms and hot temperatures, not a good recipe, stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 16/18Z through Monday 17/18Z...VFR conditions
persist through Monday with clear skies. Expect gusty southwest
surface winds each afternoon, sustained 15-20 kts with gusts up
to 35 kts, from ~16Z-03Z. Light and variable winds are anticipated
thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Monday 17/18Z through Wednesday 19/18Z...VFR conditions
prevail through Wednesday with mostly clear skies. Afternoon
southwest winds decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday, however remain
breezy, 15-25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Widespread critical fire
weather conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim are expected
on Monday afternoon, due to single digit humidity/gusty southwest
winds, 30 to 45 mph. Winds weaken on Tuesday, however, conditions
remain dry.

Wednesday through Friday...Breezy southwest winds, 15 to 25 mph on
Wednesday, with 10 to 15% humidity. Moisture increases gradually on
Thursday and Friday, with chances for dry thunderstorms returning to
the forecast. Southwest winds remain breezy each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ104>109-112-115-140.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /Noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
Monday for AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /Noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
Monday for AZZ004-006-007-009>016-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff