880
FXUS65 KFGZ 281134
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
434 AM MST Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A lull in shower and thunderstorm development will
arrive today and Saturday, before moisture returns and brings an
active pattern back to the area by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier and more stable air will continue to stream
into Arizona from the west today and into the weekend. This is due
to a persistent trough over the Pacific Northwest, which has turned
mid-level flow back to westerly. This and increased boundary layer
winds are steadily mixing out our boundary layer moisture.

Small variations in the northern stream trough will allow flow to
turn more southerly at times over the next several days. These
variations will keep the moisture pool fairly close by and will not
completely scour us out. Because of this, we are keeping low-grade
PoPs in today and Saturday, before ramping back up again by Sunday.

By Sunday or Monday, the northern stream retreats and allows the
ridge to rebuild to our east and flow once again will reverse and
become southeasterly. Moisture returns enough to ramp back into a
low-medium grade Monsoon PoP scheme for most of next week. Will have
to watch the potential at the end of next week for an abnormally
warm and western positioned high pressure cell, this will end
precipitation chances if it evolves as progged.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 28/12Z through Saturday 29/12Z...SW winds
today, 5-15kts gusting 20-25 in the afternoon. Overall drier
weather expected across northern Arizona, but isolated -SHRA/TS
is still possible mainly along and north of a line from KSOW,
KPAN, KFLG. More gusty, erratic winds should be expected near
these. Light winds return again after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 29/12Z through Monday 01/12Z...SW winds will
persist through the weekend into next week, but becoming lighter
Sunday. Mainly dry weather Saturday. SHRA and TS will start to
increase in coverage and spread back west Sunday into next week
with return of Monsoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Notably drier weather
expected both days with only light, isolated showers or high based
thunderstorms over the LCR and White Mountains. Afternoon RHs remain
elevated today, then some locations at lower elevations will fall
into the teens Saturday. Overnight recoveries remain good. Breezy
southwest winds 10-20 mph both days.

Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture and thunderstorm chances begin to
increase again from Sunday into next week. Southwest winds 10-15 mph
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff