Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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352 FXUS65 KFGZ 230121 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 621 PM MST Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An early development to the 2024 Monsoon season will bring chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms well into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Arizona is essentially bisected by a rich plume of sub-tropical moisture, with somewhat drier conditions to the west. Location of debris cloud near and under this plume each day will dictate where the early ignition is, with storm development mainly moving off terrain or northeastward each afternoon. We are basically in a low to medium grade Monsoon pattern at this point, expect daily thunderstorm chances to continue for much of this forecast period. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/00Z through Monday 24/00Z...Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR. Through 03Z, SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and erratic/gusty winds. More storms are expected after 18Z Sunday. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/00Z through Wednesday 26/00Z...Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR. Then from 19Z- 03Z each day, SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and erratic/gusty winds. OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/18Z through Tuesday 25/18Z...Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR. Then from 18Z-03Z each day, SCT SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and erratic/gusty winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...A low to medium grade Monsoon pattern each day, with average temperatures and light winds outside of storms. These storms are not dry and wetting rain is likely with almost any convective development. Tuesday through Thursday...A low to medium grade Monsoon pattern each day, with average temperatures and light southwesterly winds outside of storms. These storms are not dry and wetting rain is likely with almost any convective development. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff