119
FXUS63 KFSD 240802
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
302 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers will exit the area around sunrise this
  morning, leaving dry conditions for the rest of today.

- Temperatures trend back to normal to above normal for the rest
  of the week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A cold front continues to push through the forecast area early this
morning. Light rain showers persist along and ahead of the front and
should push out of the area by around sunrise. Very light additional
rainfall amounts are expected with most seeing a trace of rain to up
to a few hundredths of an inch.

After the front passes through, a much quieter day is expected. High
temperatures will warm to the 70s across the area this afternoon
along with marginally breezy northwest winds. This will make for a
nice fall afternoon across the area! Clear skies are expected for
the overnight hours which will allow low temperatures to fall to the
upper 40s to low 50s.

An upper level low pressure system will push southeast of the area
through the middle of this week. The low will become vertically
stacked, slow down, and separate from the current jet stream mainly
residing across Canada. With this low off to the southeast, upper
level ridging will be squeezed overhead between the low and the jet
stream. This will keep pleasant conditions going through Wednesday
and Thursday with highs warming back above average in the 70s and
80s. There could be some potential for elevated fire danger west of
the James River on Thursday as humidity lowers to around 30% and
winds strengthen up to about 30 mph.

Questions remain regarding precipitation chances though
as there remains uncertainty how the vertically stacked low will
wobble. Ensembles only show a 10-30 chance for exceeding a hundredth
of an inch of rain Friday through the weekend. If the low wobbles
back to the northwest, then perhaps some low level moisture can get
wrapped around the low to result in low level stratus and drizzle.
Otherwise, highs on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will remain in the
70s and 80s.

Medium range guidance still varies on the evolution of another
shortwave trough early next week. Cluster analysis also shows
similar variance with the same wave. However, the most favored
cluster shows the wave amplifying east of the forecast area. This is
further supported by the ensembles which again keep low
probabilities of a 10-30% chance for exceeding a hundredth of an
inch for next Monday and Tuesday. All this to say that mostly dry
conditions are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Main aviation concern remains the cold front moving through the area
from northwest to east-southeast, and as of 0300Z the front remains
off to the west of the I-29 corridor. Winds out ahead of the front
remain out of the south, becoming northwesterly behind the front.
Have seen precipitation being observed by automated gauges, and
given how scattered the rain is being shown on radar, have included
tempo groups for KFSD and KSUX rather than prevailing. VFR
conditions expected to continue, with semi-breezy northwesterly
winds developing throughout the morning hours with gusts into the
teens and lower 20s.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...APT