029
FXUS63 KFSD 240338
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1038 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (20-25%) for scattered light showers return this
  evening as a cold front moves across the region. Rainfall
  amounts at or below a tenth of an inch are expected.

- Temperatures trend back to normal to above normal levels for
  the middle of the week. Chances for precipitation remain low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Quite the gorgeous day out there, with latest observations showing
sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds
have remained primarily out of the south, with gusts up to 25 MPH
along and east of I-29. Should see breezy conditions quickly
diminish this evening as cloud cover builds ahead of an advancing
cold front. As alluded to in the previous discussion, overall
moisture with this boundary is lacking, and with little in the way
of significant forcing, do not expect to see much more than a few
isolated showers through the overnight period. Given the
aforementioned cloud cover in place, have kept overnight lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

Outside of a few lingering showers along the far eastern fringes of
our CWA, should see largely dry conditions prevail Tuesday. Winds
during this time look to become northwesterly in the wake of FROPA,
leading to a slightly cooler day. As such, have afternoon highs in
the lower 70s under partly cloudy skies. Lows will also feel a bit
crisp, as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 40s.

Upper level ridging builds across the region Wednesday, keeping
conditions dry through mid-week. This will also allow temperatures
to rise back closer to seasonal norms, as highs reach the upper 70s
to lower 80s. In regard to winds, the breeziest day looks to occur
Thursday, with southerly gusts between 20 to 30 MPH possible in
areas west of I-29 through the afternoon.

Model consistency begins to wane heading into the weekend, as an
upper level low lifts north over the Ark-La-Tex region. As of now,
most guidance has this feature moving north over Iowa, then veering
east toward the Ohio Valley. That being said, if the low were to
deviate west instead, couldn`t rule out seeing some showers/storms
in areas south of I-90. Nonetheless, still a bit hard to put much
confidence behind any one solution just yet, so have left model
blend of PoPs as if for the time being. Otherwise, look for highs in
the mid to upper 70s to continue, with lows generally in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Main aviation concern remains the cold front moving through the area
from northwest to east-southeast, and as of 0300Z the front remains
off to the west of the I-29 corridor. Winds out ahead of the front
remain out of the south, becoming northwesterly behind the front.
Have seen precipitation being observed by automated gauges, and
given how scattered the rain is being shown on radar, have included
tempo groups for KFSD and KSUX rather than prevailing. VFR
conditions expected to continue, with semi-breezy northwesterly
winds developing throughout the morning hours with gusts into the
teens and lower 20s.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...APT