284
FXUS64 KFWD 011045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The previous forecast remains on track with what will likely be
another record highest minimum temperatures this morning. The
previous record was 80 degrees at both DFW and Waco airport.

Above normal temperatures are expected once again today with
widespread triple digit heat. There will be a low chance for
isolated showers or storms across East Texas. Any precipitation
that develops will come to an end around sunset.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Trough Tuesday/

Not much change to our sensible weather is expected today compared
to this past weekend as we remain under a strong ridge overhead.
Warm and muggy conditions will persist through Tuesday with the
Heat Advisory continuing throughout much of the region. The
exception is across western portions of Central Texas, where a bit
more afternoon mixing will keep heat index values below 105
degrees, therefore, no heat headlines are in place.

The rest of the region will continue to see heat index values
between 105 to 110 with light southerly/southwesterly winds
persisting. There will be a weak shortwave that will traverse from
north to south along the Texas/Louisiana border, likely leading
to a few showers and storms across East Texas. Overall, the
probability of any afternoon precipitation will remain limited to
20% across our far eastern counties.

Rain chances will diminish after sunset, leaving behind hot and dry
conditions through the middle of the week.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/
/Tuesday Night Through Next Weekend/

Triple digit heat will continue through the July 4th holiday with
heat index values between 100 to 110 degrees both Wednesday and
Thursday. Heat headlines will continue through mid to late week
for most (if not all) of the region. Fortunately, some relief
from the triple digit temperatures will arrive later in the week.

A weak cold front will slide into the region on Friday as an
upper level trough moves into the Plains. Low rain chances will
return Thursday night and continue through Saturday as the front
serves as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. High
temperatures will also drop into the 90s behind the front through
the weekend, bringing a temporary end to our streak of triple
digit temperatures. There is good consensus among ensemble
guidance that the ridge will remain over the western CONUS as we
head into next week. This may keep us in an unusually active
pattern for mid July, with additional chances for showers and
storms.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR and south winds are ongoing at this time with a gradual
transition to southwesterly winds later this morning. Wind speeds
will remain light, generally below 10 knots. No significant
weather impacts are expected at any of the North and Central Texas
TAF sites.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  82 102  82 101 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                99  78 101  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               95  78  98  79  98 /  20   5   5   0   0
Denton             101  79 103  80 101 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            99  80 101  81 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas             101  82 102  83 101 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             99  78  99  79  98 /  10   5   0   0   0
Corsicana          100  80 101  79 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
Temple              99  78 101  77  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      101  78 103  79 101 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$