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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
279 FXUS65 KGGW 090923 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 323 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will arrive from the southwest this evening and linger into Monday. - A general warming trend to above-normal temperatures is expected through the remainder of the forecast period. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The hi-res models are proving valuable with any showers and convection from daytime instability over the last few days. They suggest there will be a few sprinkles or light showers across NE Montana by this afternoon. The flow pattern turns more from the southwest this evening ahead of a low pressure trough coming over the Rockies. This will provide an increase in low level moisture and enough forcing to suggest more widespread showers, though limited shear/instability for strong thunderstorms. The HREF keeps most of the potential for 50-60 mph wind gusts over southeast Montana this evening. There is around a 50 percent probability of a quarter inch of rain and a 20 percent probability of a half inch rain for most of NE Montana tonight through Monday. An upper level ridge pattern will then build north on Tuesday, but just reaching to near the Canadian border. This will mean a seasonable warming trend and dry conditions, aside from occasional opportunities for convection from passing shortwaves. FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS: Some fine-tuning of precipitation chances and slight increases in winds through Monday reflect deviations from recent biases and lack of detail from the NBM. Confidence is high in the overall pattern through midweek, while medium for the extent of both wetting rains and stronger thunderstorms tonight. -Zanker && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 0830Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR DISCUSSION: Scattered mid-level clouds over the area today will generally bring no more than a few sprinkles from weak instability. However, a more organized system will begin to overspread the region after 00Z with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lowering ceilings and higher rainfall rates with any thunderstorms give medium (40%) confidence for a period of MVFR before 12Z Monday. WIND: From the northeast around 10 knots, becoming east at 15 to 20 knots after 18Z. Gusty and erratic winds may occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow