071
FXUS63 KGID 261721
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather today with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

- Precipitation chances (45-65%) arrive late tonight and
  continue through Thursday morning.

- Thunderstorm chances (45-70%) return Thursday evening with a
  few strong to severe storms possible. Scattered shower/storm
  chances (15- 40%) continue into the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- Warmer temperatures return next week with highs in the 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Today...

Highs today will be cooler, ranging from the mid 80s across
northeastern portions of the area to the low 90s across southwestern
portions of the area. Dry weather is expected through the
daytime hours today along with mostly sunny skies.

A shortwave trough over the rockies will help to initiate
thunderstorm development over the western high plains Wednesday
evening. This complex of thunderstorms will move into the area late
tonight into early Thursday morning, bringing next chance (45-65%)
for precipitation to the area. Far western portions of the area have
the highest chances to see gusty winds with this line/cluster of
storms. Thunderstorms will be entering an environment with
decreasing instability, with any stronger thunderstorm expected to
weaken as it propagates east. Scattered to widespread
showers/thunderstorms are expected to continue overnight as they
slowly move east across the area.

Thursday...

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
ongoing to start the day on Thursday. Over time, chances (40-65%)
for precipitation will gradually shift to the east, with rain
exiting western portions of the area late Thursday morning and
exiting eastern portions of the area Thursday afternoon. Highs on
Thursday will depend on how widespread cloud coverage is and how
long clouds linger behind the departing rain. Highs currently range
from the mid 70s across northeastern portions of the area where rain
is expected to persist the longest, to the mid 80s across southern
and western portions of the area that will see more sunshine.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the panhandle of Nebraska
Thursday afternoon and move into the Hastings forecast area Thursday
evening. Instability will be stronger (1000-2000J/Kg) on Thursday
along with sufficient shear (35-40KTs), for strong to severe
thunderstorms across the area. The main concern for these storms
will be for damaging wind gusts, as storms are expected to develop
into clusters or a line as they move east, however large hail is
also possible. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
(45-70%) will continue overnight as the storms move east across
the area.

Friday...

Rain is expected to come to an end early Friday morning, with
clearing skies behind it. Highs on Friday will climb into the mid
80s to mid 90s ahead of an approaching trough over the Rockies. A
cold front will move through the area on Friday, bringing additional
chances for rain to the area Friday evening-overnight. Modest
instability (1000-2000 J/Kg) and shear (30-35kts) will allow for a
few of these storms to be strong to severe, however there remains
some uncertainty on how widespread thunderstorm chances (15-40%) will
be.


This weekend into next week...

Cooler temperatures are expected this weekend behind the cold
frontal passage. Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Precipitation chances this weekend remain low, with scattered,
low probability chances (15-30%) mainly during the overnight
hours. A trough moving into the Rockies on Monday will see the
return of warmer temperatures and continued scattered chances
(20-50%) for precipitation into the middle of next week. Highs
next week will return to the 90s, with warmer weather expected
to continue into the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly move ENE during
the period. The winds will become more southerly as the high
moves farther east. The gradient looks to tighten near the end
of the TAF period and will introduce gusts into the teens to low
20s. A mid-level disturbance will move out of the Rockies
tonight which will give the TAF sites chances for
-SHRA. Decided to keep EAR -SHRA for now due to morning timing
 of precipitation. GRI is a little later and figured it would
 have a little more instability to work with so put a mention
 for VCTS also. MVFR ceilings look possible behind the
 disturbance as some of the models are trying to bring a SCT-
 BKN015-020 ceiling into the area.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Beda