Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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113 FXUS63 KGID 082106 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Most severe thunderstorms should remain south of our forecast area this evening/tonight, but can not rule out a few severe storms as far north as our north central Kansas counties (8PM to 1AM). - Mild dry weather for Sunday into Monday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. - Several mainly low end chances for showers/thunderstorms Monday night/Tuesday and again Thursday night/Saturday - Warmer temperatures return on Wednesday and Thursday with highs back into the upper 80s and 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 This evening/tonight severe weather threat... After analyzing numerous forecast models it appears rather evident that most of any strong to severe storms will primarily track off to our south late this evening/tonight. These thunderstorms are just now (4PM) beginning to form across eastern Colorado and are expected to track east southeast through the evening hours. We have very little instability across our Nebraska zones and most of the instability today is located across southern and central Kansas, with some modest elevated instability as far north as northern Kansas. At this point can not rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms late this evening across north central Kansas, but am really expecting most if not all of the severe storms to remain southwest and south of our forecast area. Although we could still see at least some showers and thunderstorms further north across our area. Sunday and Monday... We`ll see a bit of an upper level ridge move across the plains resulting in what should be a dry few days. Monday Night - Tuesday... Next upper trough moves through the plains, but with mixed model output regarding rain chances. At this point it looks like a low confidence more isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday and Thursday... Upper pattern is rather zonal and at this point dry, but with warming conditions. NBM blend has us above normal with widespread 90 plus temperatures by Thursday. Friday - Saturday... An upper trough begins to take shape across the western United States bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the picture. However, many questions remain regarding timing and strength of this next trough. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 KGRI/KEAR TAFS: We have some weak rain showers moving across central Nebraska early this afternoon and then we expect some thunderstorms to move in from the west later this evening. However, the thunderstorms will be more numerous across Kansas, well south of our TAF sites, with more isolated and weather showers and thunderstorms around our TAF sites. Any evening showers and thunderstorms will likely be southeast of our TAF sites after midnight with dry weather expected for Sunday morning. Ceilings will likely remain VFR and winds should consistently be out of the northeast. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Wesely