Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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793 FXUS63 KGID 170535 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1235 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry, warm, and breezy on Friday. Highs in the 80s. - A few thunderstorms are expected to return to parts of the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning, with more widespread thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through the evening. Some of these storms may be severe. - More thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday, although details on coverage and severity are more uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 As expected, today`s weather has been absolutely fantastic. As of 3pm, temperatures are in the 70s with light winds and only spotty diurnal cumulus. Skies will clear tonight, but increasing southerly winds should keep overnight low temperatures in the 50s. Continued south/southwesterly flow will result in an even warmer day on Friday. Wind gusts of 20-30 MPH are expected through the afternoon. Highs in the 80s are a near certainty (80-100% probability on the NBM). There is even a chance (30-50%) that our southwestern areas exceed 90 degrees. A cold front moves through the area on Saturday, resulting in northerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures. That said, skies will remain mostly clear as surface high pressure moves in, possibly allowing many locations to still reach the 80s (especially in our southeast). Thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday night with an increasing LLJ. This activity may develop "overhead" or to our west, pushing across the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Instability will be somewhat limited, but some marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. This morning activity does provide some uncertainty on how the rest of the day will play out, but global deterministic models are generally supportive of another round of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through the evening. Increased instability and deep-layer shear with this round of storms would potentially support a better chance for severe storms (mainly wind and hail). More thunderstorms are expected to develop again Monday afternoon through Tuesday as an upper trough slowly moves through the central/northern Plains. Convective details remain fairly uncertain at this range, but some severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially on Monday. Ensembles favor a bit drier period Tuesday night into Wednesday before another trough arrives for late next week. These continued precip chances should keep widespread drought from returning, but medium-range ensembles actually favor below- normal precipitation totals through the next 10 days. We are nearing the climatologically "wettest" portion of our year, when we would expect roughly 1.75" over a 10-day span. Per the latest EPS/GEPS/GEFS, the probability of seeing 1.75" or more of total rain through next Saturday (May 25th) ranges from just 5% in our far southwest to around 40% in our northeast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be from the southwest to southeast with gusty winds Friday afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Schuldt