046
FXUS63 KGID 070833
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
333 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storms will again be possible (up to around a 50%
  chance) today but are not expected to be severe.

- After this evening, rain and storm chances end for the
  remainder of the 7 day forecast.

- Today will be the coolest day of the forecast with high
  temperatures mainly in the 70s.

- Heat index values of near to slightly above 100 degrees are
  expected Saturday across much of north central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is over most of the central part of the
country with an upper ridge over the West Coast. Winds are light and
variable across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the area later
this morning into this afternoon as a shortwave trough moves
overhead. Severe weather is not expected with this activity as
conditions will be much more stable than yesterday. Showers and
storms may persist (15% to 25% chance) into the evening hours but
are expected to come to an end tonight. Today will be the coolest
day for the next 7 days with high temperatures mainly in the 70s.
This will be due to a surface high pressure nearby and mostly cloudy
to cloudy skies expected. Winds will remain fairly light through the
day today. Clearing skies and continued light winds are expected
tonight. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower
60s.

Monday through Wednesday night...

The upper trough will still be present across the region on Monday
with northerly surface winds. Temperatures are expected to warm up
into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday with mostly sunny skies. Low
temperatures Monday night will be similar or slightly warmer than
the previous night. The area will be on the backside of the upper
trough on Tuesday with light and variable winds. Temperatures will
continue to warm up with highs in the lower 80s to lower 90s on
Tuesday with sunny skies present. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The upper ridge to
the west will move a little eastward on Wednesday and will cover
most of the western part of the country. Conditions on Wednesday
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
will be similar to the previous day. Low temperatures Wednesday
night will also be similar to the previous night.

Thursday through Saturday night...

The upper trough will move further east on Thursday with the upper
ridge beginning to move over the area. Winds are expected to
increase out of the south to southeast on Thursday. High
temperatures on Thursday will be similar or slightly warmer than
those on Wednesday. Temperatures Thursday night will be warmer than
previous night with lows mainly in the 60s. The upper ridge will
continue to move eastward on Friday and Saturday and have more
impact across the region. Southerly winds are expected Friday and
Saturday with sunny to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures Friday
will range from the upper 80s to upper 90s. Temperatures Saturday
will be slightly warmer with highs in the low 90s to around 100
degrees. Overnight lows will continue to warm Friday night and
Saturday night with temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Heat
index values on Saturday are expected to reach or exceed 100
degrees across portions of north central Kansas and perhaps far
southern Nebraska. Heat index values across most of south
central and central Nebraska on Saturday will generally be in
the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Winds will generally be light and somewhat variable. A mostly
northerly direction is expected by 12z. MVFR ceilings will
likely impact the terminals beginning later tonight but the
timing is uncertain. There is also some uncertainty as to how
long the low ceilings will remain. Some models keep the low
ceilings in through most of the period. Showers, and possibly a
thunderstorm, may impact the terminals beginning later tonight.
The timing on any convection is also uncertain.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt