003
FXUS63 KGLD 151655
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1055 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures in the 90s to low 100s to start the week (hottest
  on Tuesday) before slightly cooler temperatures in the
  70s/80s mid week.

- Chance for severe storms today, favoring those who are north
  of I-70 this afternoon and evening.

- Chances for storms continue into Wednesday, with the chance
  for severe storms late in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This morning, a shortwave ridge will build in, allowing the
Tri-State area to warm into the upper 90s with a few places
breaking 100 degrees. The temperatures will be aided by
southerly winds in the 15-20 kts range, but 25 kts gusts may
occasionally pop up. Around 20Z, a 500 mb shortwave trough will
bring in a surface cold front into the western CWA. Convection
is expected to start firing as the cold front enters the area.
The convection looks to start off as a few isolated to scattered
storms near Flager. Over the following couple of hours, more
storms will fire along the cold front, and by 0Z, a broken line
of storms will extend from west central Nebraska deep into the
CWA. How far south the line of storms will extend is still a bit
of a question. Currently, there is at least 50% confidence
storms will reach down to I-70, 30% confidence they will reach
U.S. 40, and 20% confidence they`ll extend past the southern
borders of the CWA. However, the better shear and lift will be
in Nebraska. This means there is a higher likelihood of severe
weather in the northern CWA.

The best areas that have the highest chance at seeing severe
weather will be north and east of Idalia, CO between 0-3Z. SPC
is highlighting wind as the main threat with these storms,
especially in our Nebraska counties. There is a hatched outlook
for wind Red Willow and Hitchcock counties, meaning there is a
15-20% chance of 65+ kts gust occurring. For these kinds of
winds to form, the storms along the line would need to become a
QLCS or MCS rather rapidly. Is the storms stay scattered and the
line remains broken, winds of 50-60, maybe 65 MPH may be
possible. If these stronger (60+ MPH) winds form, patchy blowing
dust should be expected to reduce visibility down to under a
mile. Hail will also be a concern. Maximum hail size, based
upon 8-10 C/km lapse rates, 30-35 kts EBWD, and 1,000+ J/kg CAPE
would be around 1-1.5 inches. However, due to the profile of
the CAPE (long and skinny), PWATS of 1.2-1.4 inches, LCLs over 3
km, inverted V soundings, and hot low level temperatures, the
potential for SPLASHy (Storms Producing Large Amount of Small
Hail) is fairly high. With that, we could see some stones around
1-1.5 inches, but <0.5 inch accumulating hail seems more
likely. Textbook parameters for a brief landspout are barely
being met, but confidence for landspouts is low because the
front will be moving perpendicular to its orientation, and
moving around 25-35 kts.

The severe threat looks to end around 3Z with lingering storms
exiting around 6Z. We can expect stratus to move in behind the
front, once the storms clear. The stratus will keep us from
getting cold fast, especially in the southeastern CWA. Near
Yuma, expect lows around 60 Wednesday morning, but Hill City
will only cool to around 70. Patchy to locally dense fog cannot
be ruled out, but confidence is less than 10%.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Moving through the rest of the week, the upper level ridge moves
further across the Great Plains while an upper trough begins to move
across the the Northwest Contiguous United States (CONUS). The moist
air mass moving in behind tomorrow`s cold front should linger
through Friday when the upper level pattern becomes more zonal once
again. We have daily chances for showers and storms through the
period during the afternoon to evening hours as shortwaves move over
the area. Friday and Saturday have lower confidence (20% chances) as
the upper high over the Southeast CONUS brings a return of the zonal
flow to our area. The Weather Prediction Center has the area
outlooked with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday-
Friday. Should we have storms move over the same areas day after day
we could run into some flash flooding concerns towards the end of
the week. With the current drought conditions, we should be able to
soak up a decent bit of water though. Wednesday and Thursday look to
be our much welcomed cooler days with highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s Wednesday and in the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday. Friday
onward is looking at highs climbing back into the 90s each day.
Overnight lows each night will fluctuate around the mid 50s to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Southerly winds are forecast to continue through the afternoon
with some gusts of 20-30 mph possible; highest at KMCK. Continue
to monitor for some thunderstorm development this afternoon and
through the evening. For KGLD, a slim chance of storms
developingbefore 00Z but think any activity should remain to
the NW of the terminal. A little better signal from 01-04Z so
have included a PROB30 as a surface trough moves through, severe
weather is not expected for the terminal. KMCK does have a
better potential after 00Z with a concern for strong to perhaps
severe winds and IFR visibilities due to heavy rains so have
included a tempo for this as the forcing is better the further
north you go. An increasing signal for stratus overnight as
moisture moves in from the north; some patchy fog is also
possible for the KGLD terminal as well.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...Trigg