Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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922 FXUS63 KGLD 260817 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 217 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Not as hot through the weekend. - A little more promising for widespread rainfall Wednesday night, Thursday night and Friday night. - Severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Tonight...mid and perhaps some high level clouds move through from the west with dry weather expected. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to around 70. Wednesday-Wednesday night...a fairly well organized weather system moves off the Colorado front range and into far eastern Colorado by late afternoon, supporting 20%-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms. Overnight, this system continues moving east across the remainder of the forecast area with 40%-50% pops currently advertised. PWAT values increase into the 1.4-1.9" range with general storm motions to the northeast around 20 mph, supporting some beneficial rainfall amounts. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 90 to 95 degree range with low temperatures in the 60s. There will also be east to southeast winds gusting 20 to 35 mph during the day, strongest west of Highway 25. Thursday-Thursday night...showers/thunderstorms east of Highway 25 in the morning move away with 30%-50% chances for thunderstorms across the area in the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase into the 50%-70% range during the evening before this system moves east and away from the area after midnight. PWAT values hover in the 1.3- 2.0" range during the day and into the evening before slowly decreasing after midnight. 0-6km winds remain from the west- southwest at 20 to 25 mph, supporting another chance for beneficial rainfall. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the upper 80s to middle 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to around 70. Friday-Friday night...another weather system moves off the Palmer Divide and into far eastern Colorado adjacent counties west of Highway 27 in the afternoon with pops in the 20%-40% range, continuing east overnight with 50%-60% chances for showers/thunderstorms. High temperatures currently range from the upper 80s to upper 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 For the weekend, will be on the northern periphery of a ridge centered over the southern plains. Perturbations rotating around it will approach from the southwest each afternoon and then move across the area during the night with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, will see post frontal upslope winds on Saturday with temperatures closer to normal. Surface based instability will be just hugging the southern Kansas counties and nosing into northeast Colorado Saturday afternoon, which would be the only locations that could see a marginal severe risk due to deep layer shear around 45 kts. Surface instability goes to zero fairly early Saturday evening with only some lingering weak elevated instability through Saturday night with scattered showers and isolated storms. Low temperatures will be in the 60s. On Sunday, a narrow corridor of moderate instability develops along/just west of the Colorado and Kansas border by the afternoon with the moist return flow at the surface. Deep layer shear will be around 35 kts, and with the better instabilty expect to see a higher risk for severe storms, especially in Colorado and near the Colorado/Kansas border. Instability will weaken as storms move northeast Sunday evening with the severe risk declining, but if storms manage to cluster may see some locally heavy rainfall as indicated by the GFS across areas north of Interstate 70 and into southwest Nebraska. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s. For Monday and Tuesday, the ridge weakens as a shortwave trough moves from the northern Rockies into the northern plains. It will drive a front through the area sometime late on Monday. However, the area may get dry slotted ahead of the front with westerly winds. Moisture appears to be very limited and instability is weak. Models still showing scattered convection with some synoptic scale forcing on the southern fringe of the upper wave. Confidence is on the low side for any severe threat at this time other than gusty winds with deeply mixed inverted-v soundings. Temperatures ahead of the front will warm back into the lower 100s and lows Monday night ranging from the lower 60s in Colorado to the lower 70s in north central Kansas. Will be post frontal on Tuesday with moist low level return flow by Tuesday afternoon resulting in modest instability in southern areas, fairly weak elsewhere. Looking at convection developing from the southwest in the afternoon with shortwave rotating around the southern ridge and across the area Tuesday night. Some suggestion of locally heavy rainfall from the GFS across southern areas in the better instability, but confidence at this time range is low. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 90s and lows Tuesday night in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. The main concern is the possibility of storms between 00-06Z as storms move across the area from west to east. There is a question of if they will survive and get to the terminals, but if they do they may be severe with hail and winds around 50kts. There is also a concern of low stratus, but looks to be more likely for after 06Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...KAK