872
FXUS62 KGSP 171057
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
657 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime weather is on tap for today before strong high
pressure builds in on Tuesday.  High pressure atop the region will
then suppress any storms from developing until moisture returns on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 6:35 AM Monday...Any lingering showers have fizzled out
over the past few hrs across our area. Persistent cloud cover
this morning should limit any widespread fog development, however
we continue to observe some lower visby in the mtn valleys and
over some foothill sites. Low temps should remain  1 to 2 cate-
gories above normal again this morning.

Otherwise, extensive upper ridging will remain centered just to
our NE and continue to dominate the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS thru
the near-term period. At the sfc, the center of robust high pre-
ssure will gradually drift SE and away from the New England Coast
today and tonight but still dominate the synoptic pattern down the
entire Eastern Seaboard. This will keep low-lvl SELY flow over our
area today but also begin to advect some lower theta-E air into our
eastern zones. With the upper ridge in place, deep-layer flow will
also become increasingly weak with mid-level lapse rates remaining
fairly weak as well. This should favor diurnal convection over the
mtns, where it will likely remain confined thru the day/evening.
This is reflected in the PoPs, which are low-end likely across most
of the mtns to only a slight chance over our SE zones. Sfc-based
instability may be sufficient to support a brief pulse severe storm
or two, but locally heavy/excessive rainfall will probably be a
bigger threat owing to the expected slow cell motion. High temps
should top out a degree or two above climatology for mid-June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Monday: The effects of the building stout
Mid-Atlantic/NE upper anticyclone is expected to suppress any deep
convective development atop the region on both Tuesday and
Wednesday, save for isolated diurnally fired ridgetop shower
chances.  Despite 595/6dm 50H height values atop the Carolinas, llvl
easterly flow will temper warming, and maximum temperatures remain
progged to be just around climo each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday: The cwfa is progged to be within the
southern periphery of the strong anticyclone centered along the mid-
Atlantic coast to start off the period.  Essentially a persistance
forecast for Thursday, a continued suppressed atmosphere with high
temperatures right around the mid-June climo.  Upper ridging will be
breaking down on Friday, and as the llvl flow veers to southerly,
expect an uptick in sfc dwpts and temperatures. Piedmont lower 90s
will be possible for maximums, and as the atmosphere becomes weakly
unstable, a few diurnally fired tstms will be possible. Temperatures
will continue to warm throughout the upcoming weekend thanks to the
mean lvll flow around developing Bermuda high pressure.  Piedmont
temperatures could be flirting with middle 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR cigs have been hit and miss over
the past few hours, but as of 11z this morning most terminals
are VFR. I kept a TEMPO for MVFR cigs at KCLT for the first
couple of hrs of the period and prevailing IFR cigs and MVFR
visby at KAVL until 14z. Hopefully the lower clouds will sct
out at both of these sites by late morning, but it may take a
bit longer especially at KAVL. Winds will remain light to calm
thru the morning and pick up modestly from the SE again this
afternoon and remain SELY thru the evening.

Outlook: An amplifying upper ridge is likely to result in mostly
dry/VFR conditions Tuesday thru Thursday, although early morning
fog/stratus could develop each day, mainly in the mtn valleys.
Diurnal convection could return to the area on Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT