Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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679
FXPQ50 PGUM 151805
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
405 AM ChST Sun Jun 16 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery is showing mostly cloudy skies across the
Marianas. Scattered showers are seen near Guam, with mainly isolated
showers for the CNMI. Latest altimetry passes and Ritidian buoy are
showing combined seas of 4 to 6 feet. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail.

&&

.Discussion...
As the weak trade disturbance continues to push west, drier air is
moving into the Marianas. Low-end scattered showers over Guam
diminish through the day. Otherwise, just expecting isolated trade
showers. This drier pattern will continue through the week for the
CNMI. On Monday and Monday night, a disturbance and moisture creep
north and west out of Micronesia and push through the southern
Marianas, bringing scattered showers to Guam but likely remaining
south of Rota. By Tuesday, the dry pattern will return to Guam and
continue through the rest of week. Some gusty winds are possible
during the daytime hours today and tomorrow as the gradient is
slightly tighter with the disturbances passing through.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Gentle to moderate trade winds with some fresh gusts will prevail
through the middle of next week. Combined seas of 5 and 7 feet today
will slowly diminish by about 1 to 2 feet by the middle of next week
as the trade swell subsides. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will diminish across the southern Guam waters this
afternoon.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north and
especially east facing reefs through Monday. A low risk will remain
along south and west facing reefs. Surf looks to decrease by the
middle of next week, and the rip risk could become low along north
facing reefs.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Overall weather pattern consists of weak convergence and a series of
trade-wind troughs moving through the region. An area of more
notable trade convergence continues to generate scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms around Majuro, extending just east of Kosrae.
Satellite trends shows a cluster of thunderstorms just east of
Kosrae waters early this morning, so decided to add isolated
thunderstorms back in for today. A TUTT low is north of the region
and is expected to make its way towards Wake Island as the week
progresses. The southern extent of the TUTT is expected to support
convection in the region over the next several days as it drifts
west-northwestward. Expecting this feature to link up with a trough
slowly making its way through Kosrae tonight, Pohnpei Monday, then
propagating towards Chuuk Tuesday. Majuro can still expect periods of
scattered showers due to weak trade convergence and trade-wind
troughs moving across the area. Models suggest a strengthening of an
ITCZ pattern that will spread across the region from the Marshall
Islands to Chuuk State late week and into the weekend.

Combined seas are expected to be 3 to 5 feet across most of the
region and up to 6 feet at Majuro over the next several days.
Scatterometry data shows gentle to moderate winds across the region
and mainly moderate winds across the Marshalls. Winds will generally
be gentle to moderate this week, although the trades are expected to
strengthen to moderate to fresh across Majuro late week.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap...
A broad surface trough extends into the region from the Philippines
and curves southeastward, passing just southwest of Palau. Most of
the convection in far western Micronesia clings along and south of
the axis. Meanwhile, patchy showers are spread out across Yap Proper
and Palau, where weak convergence follows behind this feature. An
approaching trade-wind trough is expected to increase showers this
afternoon for Yap and Monday for Palau. The surface trough is
expected to linger in far western Micronesia, while trade-wind
troughs continue to pile in from the east, creating periods of
showery weather this week.

Buoy and scatterometry data indicates seas around 2 to 4 feet and
light to gentle winds for Palau and light to moderate winds around
Yap. Expect benign marine conditions to continue through the week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Marianas: Slagle
Micronesia: Cruz