Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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512 FXUS64 KHGX 121140 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 640 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Summery conditions prevail through the rest of the week - today looks to feature another round of scattered showers and storms around the area, along with potential for some waterspouts on the Gulf. Rainfall potential will decrease into the end of the week, letting hotter temperatures take center stage into Saturday. While Friday and Saturday heat does not currently look extreme enough to cause significant concern for needing advisories or warnings, it is still quite hot, and if you are sensitive to heat and plan to spend significant time outdoors and/or exerting yourself, it will be wise to keep heat safety front of mind. From Sunday onward into the new week, a more unsettled weather pattern looks to reign. Though there are whispers and some hints that tropical things may be afoot, whether or not anything with a name actually develops does not significantly change the broad expectations for next week`s weather. Either way, we are looking at potential for increased showers and storms, locally heavy rain, and some gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Will be maintaining elevated rain chances today, but we should start to see a drying trend by tomorrow. For today, the stationary surface boundary lingering over the south- ern CWFA will remain one of the foci for development, along with the everpresent likelihood of the sea/bay breezes, and whatever leftover boundaries that have survived from yesterday. As for triggers, there is still the slow moving mid/upper shortwave moving in from the W/NW and abundant daytime heating. So, when combined with the deep moist- ure already in place (PWs around 2"), it is looking like another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms across SE TX. And with these rains, per WPC much of the CWA will remain in a Marginal Risk of Ex- cessive Rain through this afternoon (level 1 of 4). This will mainly due to the rains the last few days. Activity should be decreasing by this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Tomorrow...building surface high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley will begin to influence rain chances down here as it helps to push any activity that does form to mainly our S/SW counties. So the best chances for development will be along/near the stationary front still lingering along the coast and/or the sea and bay breezes. But, unfortunately, these decreasing POPs will translate warmer temperat- ures for Thurs afternoon. Highs today are going to remain influenced by possible rains...with readings generally in the lower to mid 90s. For tomorrow, highs will be mostly around the mid 90s, with spots in the upper 90s possible. This should also translate to slightly high- er heat index values as they climb to around 100F through Thurs aft- ernoon. Overnight lows will run from the lower to mid 70s across the CWA...near 80 along the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Friday and Saturday should feature less convective development, and a couple of days that focus a little more on temperatures that are back to being modestly above seasonal averages. Highs in the middle 90s should become more common around the area, and some hot spots can be expected to push into the upper 90s. Heat index values look top out in the 97-105 range on Friday, and drift upwards into the 100-107 range on Saturday. As is really so frequently the case in Southeast Texas, we`ll be looking at a couple of days that may or may not prompt any sort of advisory for the heat, but will be hot enough that there is some danger for those particularly sensitive to heat, do not take precautions to mitigate the impact of heat, or find themselves stuck in situation where they simply cannot get a break from the heat. To add context to this, the experimental HeatRisk concept, which is well suited to putting heat waves in a historical context with maximum and minimum temperatures along with CDC data, these days fall into a minor to moderate risk level - levels 2 and 3 of a 5 level system. Another experimental forecast tool, the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, focuses on the mix of temperature, humidity, solar intensity, and wind, and is well-suited to describing threats to those doing physical work in outdoor situations without the ability to shade. On both days, the risk here is described as high across the area, a threat level 4 on a 5 level scale. As a summary of taking this multi-angle look at the heat concern this weekend, it would be fair to say that it will be hot; probably hotter than usual for mid-June, but within the typical range of summer heat; and the greatest threat will be for those exerting themselves physically without shade. Alright, after all those words on heat threats for Friday and Saturday, we make a transition on Sunday - where heat may still be the focus into the early afternoon, but a surge of moist Gulf air shifts us back to a focus on showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the new week. The mid-level ridge that stretches across the southern tier of the US at the beginning of this period looks to break down some over Texas as a trough pushes over the Bay of Campeche. Daily rounds of unsettled weather can be expected each day through the rest of the period. On the plus side, the increase in clouds and rain should nudge temperatures back down to more seasonable levels. That comes at the risk of some of these storms producing locally heavy rainfall. And...then...of course, as much as I don`t want to think about tropical cyclones yet, it is June and making this analysis on stormy regions with potential low pressure centers in the Gulf is going to be a necessity. Ultimately, yes, there are some boxes checked that indicate we`ll need to keep an eye on what happens out over the Gulf next week. But also...we`d need to do that whether a tropical cyclone were guaranteed to happen or even not happen. Either way, if this plume of deep Gulf moisture pushes over our area, we`ve got to be mindful of possible heavy rain over an area that`s already seen so much rain this spring. Whether it has a name or not is kind of...irrelevant for now. For what its worth, it does seem that the deterministic guidance has some less spread in it than yesterday, and may fix the focus of some more towards the SW Gulf. But for us living here, we`ll be fixed on the potential for a rainier, stormier pattern...if there`s a name attached to it or not. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Currently monitoring the approach of showers/thunderstorms from the NW this morning. Extrapolated timing has the activity tracking into the CLL terminal in the next hour or so...to IAH around 18Z (should it hold together). Regardless, as the day progresses, it or its rem- nants should then help with further development for the rest of the CWA. Will keep the mention of precipitation as VCTS/VCSH for now... adding TEMPO groups as needed. Activity should dissipate by tonight (with the loss of heating) with patchy fog possible overnight. Rain chances could be a bit lower for tomorrow. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Generally light onshore flow and low seas should prevail through the end of the week. We may also expect the potential for additional waterspouts around the Gulf Coast for at least today. There will be a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may produce locally higher winds and seas. Anticipate stronger winds and a corresponding increase in seas, along with increased potential for showers and thunderstorms next week. At the shore, lighter onshore flow typically corresponds to a more moderate risk for rip currents, and tides that are modestly above astronomical tidal levels. This is indeed the expectation through this week. As winds are expected to strengthen next week, we can also anticipate an increase in rip current risk and tidal levels. Numerical guidance does indeed indicate an increase in rip current danger, and tidal guidance does not yet extend to this period of higher winds, so increases in both would be a fair inference to make for next week, but difficult to say with a lot of certainty just yet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 73 92 72 / 30 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 90 74 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 88 80 89 80 / 30 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Luchs AVIATION...41 MARINE...Luchs