Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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697 FXUS64 KHGX 082257 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 557 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 High pressure will move east of the area which will result in a deepening onshore flow and consequently an increase in moisture across SE Texas for Sunday. Highs will be in the lower 90s for Sunday. For tonight, increasing WAA coupled with the moisture increase may yield light streamer showers during the early morning hours on Sunday. Otherwise, expect some increase in cloud cover overnight with lows in mid to upper 70s. Sunday night`s lows will be similar. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A more unsettled pattern is expected during the long term due to the breakdown of the current mid/upper ridge and the return of a WNW to NW flow regime in the upper levels. Mid/upper pressure heights and the presence of capping will be on the decline on Monday. Meanwhile near the surface, a weak front is forecast to approach the CWA from the NE, adding some LL convergence into the mix. This will likely suffice for scattered shower and thunderstorm development. The next feature of interest will be a trough that is expected to dig southward over south-central CONUS and the lower MS River Valley late Tuesday through Thursday. Combined with the high PWAT and sufficient LL instability, the trough is expected to set the stage for additional scattered showers/thunderstorms. If we manage to find ourselves on the backside of the trough by week`s end, then synoptic decent could bring drier conditions by Thursday or Friday. However, the forecast is pretty uncertain for the Thursday-Friday time frame and we have left isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms in the forecast. It is worth mentioning that locally strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled Monday-Wednesday. Vort maxes embedded in the flow aloft will be a complicating feature in the forecast for the upcoming week. These disturbances embedded in a NW flow regime can sometimes result in organized convection overperforming in SE TX. Therefore, keeping up with the latest forecast is advised in case the severe weather risk increases. As of now, the time frame of most interest aligns with the approach of the mid/upper trough late Tuesday into Wednesday. However, uncertainty will always be high regarding timing in these types of convective scenarios. Regarding temperatures, the long range appears seasonably hot and humid, with afternoon highs averaging in the low 90s and overnight lows in the 70s. Even though this heat is considered `average`, heat safety will still be warranted given that typical SE Texas June heat can still be dangerous. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 523 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Patchy fog and low clouds could occasionally bring MVFR conditions across portions of SE Texas early Sunday morning. Isolated showers/storms will also be possible during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Otherwise VFR conditions and southeasterly winds should dominate throughout the TAF period. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Light to moderate winds and seas around 2 feet remain in the forecast through the forecast period. Rain chances begin to increase on Sunday, and remain elevated through the forecast period. Any locally stronger thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential to produce isolated strong wind gusts and locally higher seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 92 74 91 / 0 20 0 20 Houston (IAH) 76 92 75 93 / 10 20 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 80 87 79 88 / 10 20 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Self AVIATION...03 MARINE...Self