Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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363 FXUS64 KHGX 312034 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Things have mostly stabilized behind this mornings storm complex. Seeing some sun re-emerge, but chances are that things are a bit too overturned to see much more than an isolated cell or two prior to sunset. Looking upstream at water vapor imagery, nothing much of significance is noted that might impact the area tonight...though with a wnw/nw flow aloft prevailing, we`ll keep an eye on things. With wet ground, light winds and pcldy conditions I`d look for some patchy fog development overnight. Wind flow was disrupted for a good while behind this morning`s storm complex. They`re now beginning to swing back around to the southeast. As such, look for PW`s to gradually recover back to around 2" Saturday. Combination of a narrow zone of speed convergence, daytime heating and eventually a seabreeze...look for sct tstm development by mid morning closer to the coast - expanding inland throughout the day. Shear isn`t anything to write home about, but would anticipate a few isolated strong-severe pulse cells along the potential for heavy downpours. As previously stated, trying to narrow down timing/location as to where more significant impulses embedded in the upper flow might generate more organized convection is a tough challenge. At this time, we might look toward the late night hours Saturday night. Most guidance doesn`t show much making to the local area, but worth keeping an eye on any West Texas convection to make sure. 47 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Another mid level shortwave is expected to slide over Texas on Sunday, bringing an additional round of showers/thunderstorms that afternoon. The environment still looks to hold sufficient moisture, shear and instability to produce a few stronger storms, though currently these storms don`t appear to be as widespread/potent as these storms of recent. Diminishing rain chances and increasing temperatures can be expected early next week as ridging builds over Mexico. Impulses riding the peripheral of this ridge could still bring some isolated showers/storms on Monday, mainly in areas north of I-10 closer to the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. Stronger capping on Tuesday/Wednesday may greatly suppress rain chances on those days. Along with the stronger cap, NAEFS and GEFS 850mb temperatures are forecasted to surpass the 90th climatological percentile on these days (even the 97.5th in some spots). The latest suite of global models still suggest 850mb temperatures reaching the 20-26C range during this period, with robust SW flow in the lower levels. This all looks to bring hotter conditions during this early/mid week period, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday/Wednesday. Persistent onshore winds are also progged to keep dewpoints in the mid/lower 70s during this period, making conditions exceptionally humid. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s/triple digits on Sunday, rising to 101-108 degrees on Tuesday & Wednesday. Those with outdoor plans next week should be mindful of the increasing heat risk. Practicing heat safety will become especially important in the coming weeks/months as we head deeper into the climatological summer. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear lightweight clothing and be sure to take breaks out of the sun. Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year, so be sure to not underestimate the danger it poses. Global models show an elongated trough near the Upper Great lakes attempting for force a weak cold front southward into the Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region late in the week. If the front can make it to our area, it could provide some relief from the heat. Though as we`ve mentioned before, frontal systems have a tendency to stall out before reaching SE Texas during this time of the year, so the chances of getting some dramatic relief from the warm weather are low, especially as models trend slower/later with the frontal. Still, the aforementioned upper trough may weaken the ridge`s influence over SE Texas to provide some mild relief for Thursday. Though, compressional heating and pooling moisture ahead of the aforementioned boundary could negate this relief, and potentially even exasperate the heat risk. 03 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Still have a thin band of shra & iso tsra that might track toward LBX/GLS in the next few hours, but overall atmosphere is mostly stabilized from morning storms. Anticipate VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the day. Winds will be squirrelly for a bit, but should transition back to the southeast this afternoon. With winds dropping off tonight and wet ground, suspect we`ll see some patchy fog development. Have included the mention in most TAFs, but uncertainty exists on just how low vsbys will get. Pattern is such we`ll need to keep an eye upstream for weak disturbances that could trigger additional storms, but right now it appears the next decent shot will come in the mid morning and afternoon hours Saturday. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Elevated winds near 20 knots and seas up to 7 feet have developed in the wake of this morning`s storms. Small Craft should remain in harbor until conditions improve later tonight. Afterwards, light to moderate onshore flow and seas of 3 to 6 feet should prevail into the upcoming work week. Caution flags may be needed at times, especially during the overnight hours. Rounds of showers and storms will be possible over the weekend, with rain chances tapering off next week. Some of these storms could become strong to severe, producing damaging wind gusts and locally elevated seas. Persistent onshore flow will also bring a high risk of rip currents over the next several days. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 89 75 90 / 30 50 20 20 Houston (IAH) 75 89 76 90 / 40 60 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 86 80 87 / 30 30 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375. && $$