222
FXUS66 KHNX 230832
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
132 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Heat Advisory is in effect until 11 AM Monday as temperatures
will be about 9 to 12 degrees above average today.

2. There is a 40 to 70 percent probability of high temperatures
of at least 105 degrees for most of the San Joaquin Valley but
northern locations including Merced and Madera having a 25 to 35
percent probability of a high temperature of at least 105
degrees for today.


3. Above average heat will continue into the middle of next
week, with 100 degree heat persisting for many locations.

4. There is a 10 to 25 percent probability for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon along the Sierra Nevada crest from Yosemite
National Park to Kings Canyon and Sequoia National Park.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We currently have an upper level ridge of high pressure that has
established itself over the western half of the United States
leading to temperatures to be well above average. Latest model
ensembles are showing this ridge will remain. However, the
models are showing the moisture from the former Tropical Storm
Alberto will be carried by the ridge`s anticyclonic flow and
pumped into the Sierra Nevada. This moisture brings a 10 to 25
percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada on
Tuesday.

The ensembles show a strong agreement that the ridge
will weaken midweek and flatten as a trough moves across the
Pacific Northwest. This trough will help lower temperatures back
to average on Thursday and Friday. The ensembles also are
hinting at a shortwave on Saturday into next Saturday but with
less certainty.

Today, we are looking at the following probabilities for high
temperatures of at least 105 degrees according to the NBM.

Delano 61%
Hanford 51%
Madera 31%
Visalia 51%
Lemoore 41%
Merced 26%
Porterville 71%
Bakersfield 61%
Fresno 61%
Reedley 31%

The probabilities remain high for triple digits on Monday with a
60 to 90 percent probability for the entire Valley. The
probabilities decrease on Tuesday as the northern portions of
the Valley have a 40 to 50 percent probability of triple digits
while Fresno and points south have a 60 to 90 percent
probability of high temperatures of at least 100 degrees. Most
of the Valley will see a decrease to a 50 to 75 percent
probability of at least 100 degrees for most locations. However,
Merced and Madera will have a 25 to 40 percent probability on
Wednesday.

Probabilities really cool down to 30 percent or less on Thursday
and 10 percent or less on Friday of high temperatures of at
least 100. However, this is due to the trough sliding across the
Pacific Northwest bringing cooler air. This trough also raises a
concern with the wind speeds especially on Thursday for the Kern
County Desert Slopes and the West Hills. Right now, we have a 5
to 30 percent chance of 45 mph wind gusts on the Kern County
Desert Slopes for Thursday evening.


&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...

None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for CAZ300>317-319-321-
332.
&&

$$

JPK

weather.gov/hanford