Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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875 FXUS64 KHUN 180739 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Current satellite shows dry air over much of northwest AL, with evidence of a moisture gradient as you head east of I-65. This is also evident by dense stratus over northern GA and eastern TN. The main concern for the remainder of the morning hours will be fog development, and confidence in dense fog is higher along and west of I-65 due to the drier air. For now, current obs do not show any visibility reductions but will continue to monitor through the morning hours in case a short-fused Advisory is needed. High pressure will continue to be the dominating factor locally as an upper low across the Carolinas slowly pushes east. Will see moisture wrap around the western side of this low, and that will result in an increase in cloud cover this afternoon, especially across NE AL and southern middle TN. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 80s, but may need to be bumped up a few degrees if subsidence wins out and cloud cover is overdone. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The main forecast concern will continue to be fog each night with the combination of clear and calm conditions each night and recent rainfall. Will see little change in the overall synoptic pattern as the aforementioned upper low weekend and tracks northeast up the Atlantic coast and upper ridging slowly shifts east. This will result in warming temperatures into the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper ridging will center over the Southeast toward the later half of the weekend, and the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain after that. The GFS has trended toward a tropical system developing in the Gulf that could result in more humid conditions along the coastal regions. How far inland that tropical air makes it, if at all, remains in question and have stuck with blended guidance for temps and rain chances at this range. Highs will largely remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day through Tuesday, with a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the warm side, largely in the upper 60s which is also a good indicator that we will see increasing moisture into the long term period. Something to watch for in future updates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Overall, there have been no changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as the recent clearing trend continues to raise confidence in the development of BR/FG during the early morning hours. We have specifically included a TEMPO group btwn 9-13Z, which is the timeframe when fog should be most widespread and perhaps locally dense. Any fog will lift shortly after daybreak, with NNW flow of 5-10 kts and a sct-bkn Cu field developing by 14Z, but dissipating by 22Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...70