875
FXUS63 KIWX 261813
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
213 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon,
  mainly south of US-24.

- Mild and dry conditions expected on Thursday.

- Additional round of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday
  night and Saturday. Cool and dry conditions return for the
  second half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this
afternoon as a stalled frontal boundary becomes activated as a
cold front thanks to a midlevel shortwave pivoting through the
Great Lakes. Hi resolution guidance has this clearing our CWA
from NW to SE by 6pm EDT this evening. Lightning, heavy
downpours leading to localized flooding, gusty winds to 40mph,
and small hail will be possible with the heavier cores.

A very pleasant day looks to be on tap tomorrow as we`ll be dry
with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in the
50s. Enough said!

Next chance for precipitation arrives Friday night into
Saturday. The ingredients (SBCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km
bulk shear of 30- 40kts) look to be there for the possibility of
severe weather during the afternoon on Saturday; however, some
timing differences of these ingredients and the possible
impacts from earlier convection precluded confidence for
probabilities to be included on the Day 4 lookout. Keep an eye
out for future updates over the next couple of days to see if
these align. Regardless of severity, showers and thunderstorms
are more than likely Friday night through Saturday. If you need
to pick a day with better weather for outdoor activities, Sunday
will be the choice with cool temperatures (highs in the low/mid
70s) and no precipitation. The caveat is if you are swimming in
Lake Michigan, take the advise of local lifeguards as post-
frontal northerly winds may lead to hazardous surf-zone
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12z TAFS THROUGH 12z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mesoanalysis from SPC indicates elevated instability is
present, but a cap in place for now is preventing TSRA
development. Showers continue to percolate across southern WI,
in better proximity to an upper-level jet and cold front below.
An upper- level trough is digging in across WI as well (see
water vapor imagery). Therefore, should any of these forcing
mechanisms erode the existing cap, TSRA should develop in and
around KSBN very close to 15z according to the latest model
guidance. Should this fail, dry conditions will prevail at KSBN
while KFWA will still have a chance for storms until the cold
front passes. Tranquil to end the TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Marsili