025
FXUS64 KJAN 270011
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
711 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Tonight and Thursday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis
showed a potent shortwave dropping southeast through Arkansas. This
shortwave will continue dropping southeast and help develop storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail to quarter size the
remainder of the afternoon into the evening. This severe storm
threat will encompass our whole CWA but the severe threat will be
more isolated across our southeast zones. The rain cooled air will
help knock peak heat index values down as well. This will help end
the Heat Advisory from the northwest that will expire at 8PM
otherwise. Although the severe storm threat will end this evening
with the loss of daytime heating the shortwave trough will become
centered over our CWA tonight and then shift to our southeast most
zones Thursday. This will prolong rain chances areawide tonight and
then gradually end the chance for rain in the northwest Thursday
afternoon. No additional severe storms are expected Thursday and the
cloud cover along with rain chances will help hold down heat stress.
Afternoon highs Thursday will be held in the 80s at most locations.
/22/

Thursday night through next Wednesday...

By Thursday night into Friday morning, a weak boundary is expected
to continue moving southeast into the Gulf of Mexico. By Friday, the
boundary is progged to remain stalled across the southeast, allowing
for increased PWAT values > 2.0 inches. Additionally, a deep layer
ridging pattern will begin to take place across the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Increased temperatures will allow for efficient daytime
heating, which will promote sufficient surface instability.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible across
S/SE MS on Friday afternoon as the boundary lingers over the region.
Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees lower than previous
days, with highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the middle
70s. By Saturday the mid-level high pressure system will begin to
strengthen over our CWA. This will increase temperatures across the
region, with highs increasing into the middle 90s on Saturday and
Sunday, while heat indices climb to 105-110+ degF. As of now, an
"Elevated" (2/4) risk for dangerous heat will continue to be
advertised. Diurnal showers and storms are expected to continue
through the weekend as the boundary continues to linger near coastal
MS.

By the beginning of the next work week, a high pressure system will
begin to dominate the forecast, with a broad deep layer high
strengthening over the region. This will allow for increased air
temperatures as well as heat indices. Highs are expected to climb
into the upper 90s to triple digits in some areas by Tuesday. A W/NW
flow regime will allow for drier, hotter air to filter into the
southeast. Heat indices are expected to range between 105-115 degF.
As of now, Excessive Heat products will not be advertised, but
confidence is increasing that the potential for a wave of oppressive
heat will blanket our CWA. Isolated to scattered diurnal showers and
storms will stick around next week, with the highest chances for
precipitation being in southeast MS. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, but
expect MVFR/IFR category ceilings to develop late tonight into the
early morning for much of the forecast area. As conditions warm
up Thursday, ceilings will improve to VFR. Otherwise, it appears
the best chance for convective impacts will be this evening over
the east, and again later Thursday over southeast portions of the
area. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  88  73  92 /  60  40  10  30
Meridian      71  89  71  92 /  60  60  20  30
Vicksburg     72  89  73  93 /  60  30  10  20
Hattiesburg   75  90  74  93 /  60  80  20  60
Natchez       72  88  73  92 /  60  60  10  30
Greenville    73  89  74  94 /  40  10   0  10
Greenwood     71  88  73  94 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

22/AJ/EC