590
FXUS62 KJAX 150115
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
915 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

No major forecast changes tonight. Although generally "off
season", some patchy fog will be possible over parts of the
interior given the amount of low level moisture from the
persistent onshore winds the past few days. The main question is
if winds will subside enough for this to occur. Otherwise, a
seasonably mild night expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will remain possible
near the I-75 corridor later this afternoon and evening. Tonight,
onshore winds will keep mild lows along the coast, only falling to
the mid 70s. Inland, lows will drop into the upper 60s to lower
70s with calm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Saturday, as low and mid level ridging moves over the region,
rising heights will allow highs to be hotter inland reaching the
mid to upper 90s west of I-95 under mostly sunny skies. Winds will
be slightly lighter than today over inland areas 5-10 mph and about
8-12 mph behind the Atlantic seabreeze along the SE GA coast and
towards highway 301 in NE FL with a southerly Gulf seabreeze that
should press inland to near I-75 by late afternoon 5-10 mph. Max
heat index values will range 100 to 105 degrees over NE FL and
around 100 over SE GA. Drier air over SE GA will nearly eliminate
precipitation chances with a few showers/lone T`storm south of
I-10 while a bit more coverage over our southern most counties
where coverage will include widely scattered showers and T`storms.

A few coastal showers may work onshore Saturday night with humid
overnight lows in the upper 70s to near 80 at the beaches and
the low to mid 70s inland.

Sunday, A cold front arriving from the north will help to bring an
increase in moisture with easterly flow bringing the Atlantic
seabreeze well inland before merging with the Gulf seabreeze west
of I-75 over NE FL/north central where more T`storms will focus.
Skies will be more partly cloudy with widely scattered showers
and T`storms for the rest of the area across NE FL and isolated
coverage over SE GA. High temperatures will be less hot by a few
degrees Sunday as ridging aloft shifts more north and east of
our area with middle 90s west of highway 301, low 90s along I-95
to around 90 at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mid to upper level ridging will build NNE from the Carolinas into
the NE states and New England through next week. A back door cold
front will dissipate as it shifts south along the SE US coast to
the area Monday with drier air aloft filtering into our area as
high pressure builds off the coast of New England. This pattern
will support partly to mostly cloudy skies each day as coastal
showers move onshore and then diminish farther inland with highest
pops along the NE FL coast 50-70 percent ranging to only 15-30
percent across SE GA where additional dry air will be in place.

By Thursday, the GFS and ECMWF show an upper trough migrating west
from near Bermuda towards the area which will increase moisture
levels by late in the week to around 2.00 inches of precipitable
water. The combination of higher moisture and shortwave energy
from the upper trough will bump up coverage of showers and T`storms
to numerous (55-75 percent) over NE FL and along the coast with
numerous to widespread showers and T`storms Friday (65-85 percent)
and scattered to numerous coverage over SE GA (40-60 percent).

This pattern will support a backdoor cold front moving down the
southeast coast towards the area late Sunday and moving through
the area Monday before stalling near or just south of the area
with onshore breezy easterly flow. Precipitation chances will be
in the 20-30 percent range Sunday and 30-40 percent range Monday
and Tuesday with widely scattered T`storms mainly over NE FL away
from the coast as the Atlantic seabreeze moves well inland towards
the Gulf coast each day. Pops will increase to 40-60 percent over
NE FL midweek with scattered to numerous T`storms across NE FL as
moisture steadily increases with isolated to scattered T`storm
coverage over SE GA.

Temperatures during the period will be near average Monday along
the coast and bit above normal inland, then near normal the rest
of the week thanks to easterly onshore flow and partly to mostly
cloudy sky cover. Low temperatures will be above normal along the
coast in the mid to upper 70s and near normal inland in the low
70s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Clouds are slowly dissipating across the area with VFR for most
this evening. The exception is SGJ which is holding onto MVFR
cloud decks, which should gradually diminish over the next 1-2
hours. A fair amount of low level moisture could result in some
areas of fog tonight, especially away from the coastal sites.
Confidence is not high enough for conditions below VFR in the
forecast except for VQQ at this time, though MVFR is certainly
possible at JAX/CRG/GNV towards morning.

Convection is expected to be at a minimum on Saturday Afternoon.
Only included VCSH for GNV at this time, and TSRA is unlikely at
all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Low pressure will continue to move to the northeast through Saturday.
Stronger high pressure will build to the north northeast Saturday
night through Sunday ushering in a prolonged period of onshore
flow, although wind and sea conditions at this time are expected
to remain just below small craft advisory levels.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Saturday for NE FL and SE GA
beaches. Elevated rip current Sunday into early next week as
onshore winds increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Min RH values will lower to 30-35 percent Saturday afternoon over
inland areas with areas of high daytime dispersions from high
mixing heights and elevated transport winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  98  72  95 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  76  91  78  89 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  72  95  73  92 /   0  10   0  20
SGJ  75  91  75  90 /   0  20  10  30
GNV  71  95  70  94 /  10  30  10  40
OCF  73  95  73  94 /  10  60  10  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$