609
FXUS63 KJKL 180810
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
410 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional shower (and possible thunderstorm) chances will
  occur through Thursday.

- A warming trend will lead to temperatures around 10 degrees
  above normal over the upcoming weekend.

- Active weather returns for the 1st half of next week, with
  showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024

Forecast is on track, and meaningful precip looks to be done for
the night. Have blended late evening obs into the forecast without
any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 909 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2024

Precip has been on an overall decline this evening. The most
significant showers remaining are in our southwest counties. Have
updated the POP for this evening based on these trends, with
mainly a sub-20% POP to follow for the overnight, as models and
radar would suggest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 507 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2024

Upper level low and associated surface wave will spin its way up
the northern half of the Piedmont during the short term, opening
up into a trough as it tracks towards New England. Short wave
energy rotating around the low will keep the threat of some type
of afternoon convection in place across portions eastern Kentucky
through the period. There is a band of showers, and further
upstream, thunderstorms lining up along the NC/VA state line that
is moving downstream into eastern Kentucky. SPC mesoanalysis shows
a lobe of MLCAPE nosing its way as far northwest as Wise, VA. But
otherwise, the better instability remains outside of our forecast
area. This line takes on an increased east to west orientation
with time. Consequently, this source of moisture into eastern
Kentucky will eventually get shunted off to the south of our area
by this evening.

Sensible weather features an unsettled short term, with the bonus
of the chance of receiving some much needed rain, even if
relatively meager in amounts. Being at an upslope location, Big
Black Mountain has come out on top with almost 1.5 inches of
rainfall today. Totals drop off quickly from there with around a
half inch directly down from Black Mountain, across the immediate
tier of counties from the VA state line. From there, the next tier
of counties going west- northwest had just under a quarter of an
inch of rainfall, with lesser amounts further to the west-
northwest, around a tenth or less of precipitation. Up to another
tenth of an inch on average will be possible through the short
term...where showers pass. Have not seen any thunder thus far and
expect that to remain the case in general through the remainder of
the late afternoon and evening. However, with MLCAPES of 750-1000
J/kg, there is slightly better instability to work with on
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024

Model guidance shows a 592mb subtropical high centered over Texas,
supporting a positively tilted ridge upstream. Concurrently, a
longwave positively tilted trough looks to encompass much of the
eastern seaboard. As far as sensible weather for eastern Kentucky,
any lingering showers should be tapering off heading into the
evening, with fog developing overnight heading into Friday. Lows
should generally be in the 50s.

Friday through Sunday, expect the eastern trough to progress further
north and east and for the subtropical ridge to slightly strengthen.
With increasing heights aloft, daytime high temperatures are expected
to run 5-10 degrees above normal, in the mid to upper 80s. Expect
mostly sunny skies for Friday, with some clouds showing up Saturday
and Sunday. Lows will generally remain in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Next week, active weather returns to eastern Kentucky, with model
guidance showing an upper level low ejecting out of the
intermountain west into the Plains, while the subtropical high over
Texas begins to shift eastward. Some showers and thunderstorms look
to spill over the ridge into the area during the afternoon Monday,
with on and off storms continuing through Wednesday. Highs  Monday
are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with cooler temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 70s to low 80s with the added
cloud cover limiting daytime heating. Lows will generally be in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024

A combination of conditions exist across the area with this TAF
issuance. Southern terminals (KJKL, KSJS, KLOZ and KSME) are
expected to fall into categorical IFR to MVFR overnight. Terminal
KSYM is expected to fluctuate between MVFR/VFR overnight.
Fog/low- level stratus will continue through the early morning
before improving to MVFR/VFR by the early afternoon. As this
system, that`s brought the lowered CIGS and showers, continues to
impact the area; a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms
will develop Wednesday afternoon after 18Z through 22Z before
dissipating. Showers and storms may cause brief reductions in
VSBY. Toward the end of the period, CIGS are expected to fall
again into categorical MVFR overnight Wednesday. Light and
variable winds are forecast to persist through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST