Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
563 FXUS62 KKEY 200249 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1049 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Currently - Breezy conditions continue across the Keys this evening. This is due to the combined effect of an Atlantic ridge that reaches across the southeastern United States and a broad Tropical Storm Alberto near the Bay of Campeche. Overall, the lower levels in our area remains confluent with little to no inhibition. Meanwhile, a cut off upper level low is transiting southwestward across our area and is responsible for surface through mid level troughing northeast of the Bahamas. However, recent soundings and satellite imagery are consistent with guidance indicating a swath of drier air west of the lower level trough pushing into South Florida and the Keys. While not substantive enough to shut off convective activity, it does appear to have cut back on proliferation. Short Term Update - High pressure will remain to our north overnight while Tropical Storm Alberto will advance west northwestward and make landfall over Mexico. This in combination with the trough east of the Bahamas nudging closer to the Bahamas will result in a slight reduction of the local pressure gradient. While trending slightly downwards, winds will likely remain breezy. Forecast soundings indicate inhibition will remain limited but with a window of drier lower levels. All this justifies holding onto mid chance pops. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points stuck in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The combination of an Atlantic ridge reaching into the southeastern United States and broad Tropical Storm Alberto near the Bay of Campeche will maintain a rather tight pressure gradient across Florida Keys waters through the overnight period. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. With that said, the environment will be supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms. These rather fast moving cells may deliver quick spells of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds will be easterly near 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest