Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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011 FXUS64 KLCH 262346 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 646 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the area primarily under the influence of high pressure centered over the Gulf, with a swrly low-level flow in place over much of the forecast area so far today. Water vapor imagery shows the mid/upper-level ridging which had been in place over the region previously has now been shunted back well west of the area, with the ern CONUS now generally under troffing aloft. Meanwhile, a significant shortwave was noted dropping through the lower MS Valley...this feature, along with a sfc frontal boundary, helped fire an MCS earlier which is now on the doorstep of our nrn zones. Recent 88D/satellite imagery show this feature has been on a gradual weakening trend...however, the now broken line of storms will be moving swd through the bulk of the forecast area over the next few hours. Recent collab with SPC indicates there will be no watch issuance for this activity due to the weakening nature of the feature. Ahead of the line, typical diurnal pop up convection has been noted across the area so far today. The main question of the first period of the forecast is what becomes of the ongoing convection as it is moving much faster than any guidance is advertising. And thereafter, will the lingering boundary and any new boundaries have time to produce further activity before heating wanes. All in all, am carrying some small POP for the entire area prior to sunset to address these concerns. Thereafter, blended guidance was finally advertising higher rain chances, presumably due to this feature`s arrival...expecting whatever lingering precip there is to gradually dissipate through the evening. Various CAM guidance was then advertising perhaps a 2nd feature developing upstream and impacting mainly the nern zones later tonight...have toned down POPs for then due to a lack of certainty on what focus will drive this, but didn`t want to pull rain chances altogether. Elevated rain chances do return for Thursday afternoon as another in a series of disturbances rounds the ern CONUS trof, possibly cutting off to our east, while the sfc front is progged to sink swd towards the forecast area. In addition, reasonable moisture (mean RH values mostly around 60 percent although PWATs remain high per forecast soundings) is forecast. The enhanced cloud cover/precip should limit high temperatures to readings in the lower 90s tomorrow. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s, heat index values are progged to peak just below advisory criteria at this time...thus no advisory is being planned at this time. Friday sees the ridging aloft trying to build back over the area...could see enough influence to limit rain chances to just a slight chance across the far nrn/nwrn zones. Otherwise, looking at another day of elevated rain chances, especially across the sern zones where moisture looks best/capping looks least. Unfortunately where the rain chances are least, the odds of reaching heat advisory criteria returns with apparent temps peaking around 110F. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Upper level ridging will become reestablished overhead through the first half of the weekend, and will then remain situated across the south-central CONUS through the end of the forecast period. At the surface, high pressure will meander around the northern Gulf Coast through the weekend, providing a light onshore flow and a continuous stream of Gulf moisture inland. Ridging aloft will cause temperatures to soar through the weekend, with highs reaching into the upper 90s inland and into the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Heat indices will more than likely exceed advisory criteria for a good portion of the area over the weekend as well. Even with ridging overhead, our typical diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the weekend. For Saturday, convection should be fairly isolated through the afternoon hours, with Acadiana likely seeing the bulk of any activity. Sunday will bring a similar isolated to widely scattered set up however, the entire region will have at least a small chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm. Rain should taper off with sunset on Sat, while we may see some convection linger a bit longer on Sunday. Moving into the work week, a weak frontal boundary looks like it will make it possible as far south as Alexandria before stalling out for a brief period. This will provide some additional support for afternoon showers and thunderstorms both Mon and Tues, but will be fairly unnoticeable otherwise. Rain chances look like they will continue to be best across Acadiana and the I-49 corridor each afternoon, with lesser chances across SE TX and western LA. Temperature wise, highs continue to top out in the mid to upper 90s each day while overnight lows fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. 17 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The remnants of an MCS continue to weaken across the area this evening as it moves into LFT and ARA which may see light precipitation over the next hour. VFR conditions expected to prevail overnight although can`t rule out some light, patchy fog in response to this afternoon`s precip. Otherwise, light Southwesterly flow will prevail. An upper level trof axis is expected to move through the region Thursday with a weak frontal boundary which will provide a focus for scattered thunderstorm development from mid morning through early evening. Away from storms, generally light Southwesterly to Westerly winds will prevail. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 No headlines are currently expected on the CWF over the coming days as the area should continue to see a mainly light onshore flow. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 92 73 94 / 40 60 10 30 LCH 78 92 79 91 / 30 60 20 40 LFT 78 91 78 92 / 30 60 30 70 BPT 78 94 79 93 / 30 30 10 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...66