Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
980 FXUS64 KLCH 242303 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 603 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Mid-afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure situated off the MS/AL coast, while aloft weak ridging extends from the desert SW to the NW Gulf Coast. Only a few very isolated showers are noted on area radar this afternoon, amid otherwise mostly sunny skies. Observations across the CWA show temps currently ranging from the low to mid 90s, while heat indices are in the 100-108 range at this time. The remainder of this afternoon into this even will consist of a continuation of this weather, with a few more isolated showers potentially popping up over the next couple of hours before activity dies with sunset. Tonight, expect lows to fall into the mid to upper 70s. Tomorrow will bring a nearly identical set up and a near repeat of today`s weather, with the main concern being the continued hot and humid conditions. Another Heat Advisory has been issued from 11AM through 7PM tomorrow for interior SE TX, central LA, and south- central LA, with heat indices in the 108-110 range expected. The remainder of the region is expected to remain below advisory criteria but only slightly, with heat index values expected to peak around 105-107 tomorrow afternoon. Temperature wise, highs will again top out in the mid 90s, with some of our extreme northern areas potentially reaching the upper 90s. In addition, relatively isolated convection is again expected, providing little reprieve from the heat. As we move into the mid-week, the upper ridge is expected to retreat westward as a mid level trough takes shape over the eastern CONUS. This will open the door for better rain chances on Wednesday with POPs around 25-50% on tap through the afternoon hours. Temps are expected to top out in the low to mid 90s Wed afternoon, while heat indices look like they may remain just below advisory criteria thanks to the addition of better rain chances. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The long term begins Thursday with sfc high pressure centered over the ern Gulf maintaining a srly low-level flow while a weak frontal boundary is noted slipping swd to near the I-20 corridor by day`s end. Aloft, the area is progged to be squeezed between a trof along the East Coast and ridging extending up the Plains from Texas with a general weakness in place across the LA zones. With forecast soundings indicating plenty of available moisture (mean RH values range from 70 percent west to 90 percent sern 1/3...PWAT values range from 2.1 to 2.4 inches), expect at least scattered mainly diurnal convection, especially over Acadiana/Atchafalaya Basin. For Friday, the ridge aloft is progged to begin building back somewhat over the region, nudging the weakness ewd toward the FL Panhandle. However, forecast soundings don`t indicate a great deal of capping with the weak ridge. Meanwhile, the sfc boundary is likely to slip back nwd, lessening whatever influence it may have. All in all, small POPs remain in the forecast for now. Saturday looks like a general repeat of Friday. Sunday could see a bit more convective coverage as a disturbance is progged to swing past the ridge and combine with the good moisture in place, while another frontal boundary stalls to our north. Temperatures through the period are forecast to run rather static with overnight lows in the mid/upper 70s and daytime highs in the mid 90s. Apparent temps approaching the 108F advisory criteria look possible generally each afternoon. 25 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) SHRA/TSRA north of LFT/ARA, with current trends, not expecting to affect these terminals, or remaining terminals this evening and overnight. South to southeast winds 8-10 kts expected to diminish to 4-5 kts or less after 01z, and pick up again by 18z Tuesday. Slightly higher chances of SHRA/TSRA over Acadiana Tuesday afternoon, but still limited to 30-40%. Thus, placed only VCTS for LFT/ARA/AEX. Further west at LCH/BPT, much lower chances expected, with no mention of VCTS. 08/DML && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Light onshore flow will continue through the week across the coastal waters. Waves will also be low, with a height between 1 and 3 feet, with the higher waves farther offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 97 75 96 / 0 20 10 30 LCH 78 93 77 92 / 0 20 0 30 LFT 77 95 76 94 / 10 40 10 50 BPT 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-033-044- 045-055-152>154-252>254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027>029-033- 044-045-055-152>154-243-252>254. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073- 074-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-259-260. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-201-259- 260. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...08