Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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914 FXUS64 KLIX 201947 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 247 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... -We continue to monitor the western Caribbean and southern Gulf for tropical cyclone development during the middle to later part of next week. -Some models are forecasting a robust tropical cyclone making landfall on the gulf coast around the end of the month and these model solutions are making the rounds on social media and other news platforms. -Keep in mind that model guidance will likely continue to vary widely between the different models and from run to run unless/until the system actually starts to develop. Because of this, we urge you to please not focus on any individual model forecasts as there is little to no confidence in any one solution at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 All is quiet for the short term period as upper level ridging continue to build into the area from the west. This has kept little to no convection from forming today, outside of a few showers offshore. This will continue tomorrow with PoPs ~0% as the ridge moves further overhead. On the other side of things, the ridge continuing to build in also helps temperatures rise just a bit. Adjusted tomorrow`s MaxT`s using a blend of the 50th and 75th percentile to get them closer to guidance. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s for all. HRL && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 At the beginning of the extended period we will be under upper level ridging anchored to our west. As the week progresses the high pressure stays in place but blends with the Bahama high. The result of this setup is dry, warm weather. By mid-week, we see a trough moving off the Rockies and as it moves eastward provides a path for Gulf moisture to move into the area bringing PoPs up into general/typical summertime ranges of 20-30% through the end of the period. Temperatures will also drop slightly as the week progresses. /Schlotz/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 All terminals VFR this afternoon and likely remain that way through the majority of the forecast period. Western areas may see some light patchy fog in the early morning hours Saturday, but this dissipates after sunrise. Otherwise light and variable winds with no convection expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Winds hold calm through early tomorrow, then we will see a more steady easterly flow setup around ~10-15kts. This will bring an increase in seas, ~2-3ft, through the later part of the weekend and into early next week. These conditions will stick around for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 74 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 72 91 71 90 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 75 90 75 89 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 72 91 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 71 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...HL MARINE...HL