Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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866 FXUS64 KLIX 231108 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 608 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The H5 ridge over our region will continue to spread west with time as a weak trough begins to move south and east over the Ohio River Valley Today and into Monday. Overall, this should keep our region in a very dry northerly upper level flow. Surface high pressure in place over the Gulf of Mexico will also help keep conditions mostly benign across the region. That said, the diurnal sea/lake breeze this afternoon or early evening may help develop an isolated shower or perhaps a storm, especially west of the tidal lakes. This potential although not zero will simply be the exception rather than the rule as dry upper level conditions continue and some afternoon mixing will help drag some of this dry air down to the surface. Again, best potential would be where boundary layer moisture is modified by the mesoscale boundaries. Otherwise, on Monday a slightly rich southerly flow tries to set up across the region. This will keep moisture at least along the I10/12 corridor and south from effectively mixing out during the afternoon. That said, lower end POPs are only needed with the sea/lake breeze due to the overall weak nature of return moisture. Because moisture is on the increase and any POPs would be later in the day, we continue to monitor heat index values for Monday...and a Heat Advisory will likely be needed in subsequent packages. Finally, will continue the Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal Hancock Co., MS as the weak low level flow isn`t helping move the volume of water out of the tidal lakes and sounds fast enough...so minor coastal flooding will remain possible in the coastal flood prone areas. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Tuesday will continue to be hot with possible heat advisories needed once again. Similar to Monday, there will be a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon or early evening. Again, low coverage and timing will not become much of a limiting factor from reaching heat advisory conditions. Eventually, a surface front will move southward by Wednesday and Thursday. With a couple of H5 shortwaves moving overhead, expect rain chances and coverage to increase by mid to late week. At least this will limit heat just a bit. Later on in the medium range, it appears the ridge out west will again build eastward once again over the region. At the surface the residual front(s) should wash out pretty effectively and with more subsidence and dry air moving into the mid and upper levels, POPs should start to decrease going into the upcoming weekend. Inversely, as POPs increase and as height and thicknesses once again increase, expect temperatures to respond by climbing back into the mid and upper 90s. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions expected through the cycle with generally light and variable winds (generally leaning toward southerly or southwesterly in time). Convection chances are very low today, but not zero for HDC and BTR. Coverage looks isolated at best so went optimistic and left TS out of the forecast. However, short fused TEMPOs could be needed if coverage increases. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 High pressure will mostly stay in control through the start of the workweek and perhaps into midweek. Eventually, a weak frontal boundary will move into the region and stall Tuesday into Wednesday, which will increase shower and thunderstorm chances, especially during the overnight hours. This initial front will weak and another front is forecast to move into the region by the end of the week, which will continue to provide a focus for convection. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 95 73 95 74 / 10 0 40 10 BTR 98 78 99 78 / 20 0 40 10 ASD 95 76 96 77 / 10 0 30 10 MSY 94 78 96 79 / 20 0 40 10 GPT 93 77 95 77 / 10 0 30 10 PQL 96 76 98 77 / 0 0 30 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF