909
FXUS65 KLKN 241009
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
309 AM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions persist today. Probabilities
for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday and Wednesday to much
of the region, with temperatures remaining above normal. Winds
become breezy over NW Nevada Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. Dry today with
continued well above normal temperatures. The Heat Advisory
remains in effect for eastern Elko county (today through Wednesday
evening) due to hot afternoons coupled with very warm overnight
low temperatures which will limit relief from the heat. More
active weather begins on Tuesday as central and northern NV will
be wedged between trough energy just off the Pacific NW coast and
high pressure building in from the four-corners region of the
desert southwest. Increasing mid-level moisture moving in under
the approaching ridge in combination with enhanced lift and
instability will produce thunderstorms over portions central and
northern NV on Tuesday. Best chances (15-25%) for thunderstorms on
Tuesday will be along and south of the Highway 50 corridor. There
will however be a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms over much of the
CWA north of the Highway 50 corridor too.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday

Synoptic setup Wednesday morning defined by continued high
pressure situated over the four corners region with an upper low
and parent trof moving from west to east into the PacNW and B.C.
Canada. An increase in mid level moisture is expected as the flow
pattern shifts in accordance with the progressing low. A frontal
boundary will move into the forecast area form the northwest
providing a 20% to 30% probability for a mix of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms across mainly eastern Nevada on Wednesday.
Models have become a bit more bullish on precipitation, favoring
wet storm modes which is also in line with the latest progs,
indicating PWAT values greater than 0.75 for some locales. Mostly
dry Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms potentially
lingering over the high terrain of White Pine County. Breezy
conditions can also be expected with gusts around 30 mph. By
Friday the trof continues to progress east thru Utah and into
Colorado with the high pressure center situated over the four
corners region also migrating east again and into the southeastern
U.S. Weather remains dry Saturday and Sunday with zonal flow
turning southwesterly thru the Friday to Sunday time frame. The
typical afternoon breezes are expected. Potential for another
shortwave trof to move thru from the PacNW in the Monday time
frame.

Temperatures will moderate some mid week in conjunction with the
passage of the trof and frontal boundary. Daytime highs by
Thursday look to be in the upper 70s to low 80s across northern
Elko and Humboldt Counties, with temperatures remaining warm and
in the low to mid 90s across much of northern Nye County.
Overnight lows range in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Slight warm up
indicated for the weekend with temperatures moderating again early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Cumulus build-ups will develop Monday afternoon and
evening in portions of central NV, with a 10-15% probability of
isolated showers and thunderstorms in southeast White Pine County.
Breezy winds from the SW-W expected to affect all TAF sites
during the afternoon, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to
20-25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions continue today along with well
above normal temperatures. There is a small (5-10%) chance of dry
thunderstorms in southern portions of zone 425 this afternoon.
More active weather begins on Tuesday as moist and unstable air
expands up from southern NV and Arizona and into much of central
and portions of northern NV. At this time the leading edge of the
moisture surge will likely bring a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms to the region, with storms transitioning to wet by
the mid to late afternoon hours on Tuesday. The greatest
instability and highest chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday will
be generally along and south of the Highway 50 corridor.

Wednesday the trough over the Pacific NW will advance a little
closer to NW Nevada, which will lead to gusty winds and low RHs
over all of zone 437 and portions of zones 438 and 424. At this
time however fuels are not considered cured in any of these three
zones. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the
rest of central and northeastern NV Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures remain well above normal, with rises on
some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain expected
over the next few days. However, not expecting any new flooding
as the snow pack is greatly diminished.

The water level on Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated from
spring snow melt, but is expected to drop below action stage
later today.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

96/92/90/96