Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
258 FXUS65 KLKN 222027 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 127 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and above normal highs in the 90s will continue through midweek. By Wednesday some isolated thunderstorms may develop over eastern Nevada. && .SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Sunday Night. Seasonably above normal temperatures will continue across the state this afternoon and through the weekend. As a sub-tropical high to the southeast and a trough to the north, keeps the state dry. Late morning temperatures have already risen into the mid to upper 80s, and is forecasted to peak in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. Similar condtions are expected Sunday as well, with the forecasted high within a degree or two of record highs at Elko and Eureka. Nighttime lows will cool into the upper 50s tonight and Sunday night. Breezy afternoon winds are expected with southwest winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph this afternoon, with stronger westerly winds 15-20, gusting to 25 mph Sunday afternoon. .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday. Based upon the HREF and then later periods of the WPC cluster analysis, Nevada remain between two major upper level features as the first week of Summer begins. The first main feature is a strong subtropical ridge of high pressure that will meander between New Mexico and Arizona, which will bring above normal temperatures to the region through Wednesday. The second main feature is the upper level trough over SW BC and Pacific NW, shortwave working through the strong westerly flow will help lower the height a couple of 10`s of decameters and push a weak cold front into northern Nevada later in the week on Thursday thus lowering max temp a few degrees, however remaining above normal. Between the trough to the north and the subtropical high to the southeast over Arizona/New Mexico, some monsoonal moisture per NBM is forecast to work into the area late Wednesday into Thursday and then begin to diminish with lowering PW`s Friday into Saturday. The best chances for high high based thunder and dry thunder is forecast for late on Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Noticeably breezy westerly wind conditions with 15 to 25 mph winds and gusts from 20 to 30 mph are forecast across most of northern, northeast, and east central Nevada on Thursday as the trough works it way across the region. By Friday the trough moves east and pushes the mid level moisture out of the area again leaving quiet conditions for Saturday. Temperatures will begin the week in the upper 80s to upper 90s, running about 10+ degrees above normal. Temperatures will cool a bit across northern Nevada with the passage of the front Thursday/Friday into the upper 70s to upper 80s. Central Nevada will not feel any relief as highs remain in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Highs across the north will recover quickly back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by the weekend as the upper ridge builds westward into the region. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and dry weather are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. West - Southwest wind gust from 15-20 kts late afternoon and evening then 15-25 kts Sunday afternoon mainly over northern Elko county and Humboldt county. && .FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions are expected across the entire region, with highs generally in the 90s. Afternoon winds this weekend will mainly be in the 7-17mph range with gusts up to 25 mph. Slightly higher winds are expected over northern Humboldt county Sunday afternoon, with some of the higher terrain in zones 437 and 438 possibly seeing gusts reaching up into low 30mph range. && .HYDROLOGY...Temperatures trending warmer, with well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are expected over the next few days, but for now not expecting any new flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished. Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from the spring snowmelt. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County. && $$ 91/85/85/91