Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
860 FXUS64 KLUB 241107 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 607 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Upper level high pressure centered near El Paso today and tonight with a significant extension of the ridge eastward across Texas will keep the weather fair but hot across the forecast area. South winds of 5-15 mph are expected through the short term period with some diurnal variance between southwest and southeast, dew point temperatures continuing to decrease slightly, and skies generally clear. Temperatures today and tonight will show little change from the previous 24 hours. NBM and METMOS are almost identical and have a good recent track record and will continue with them this morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 No major changes made to the long-term package this morning. With the main message still being very warm temperatures through the upcoming week. By Tuesday the upper level ridge and associated high pressure is expected to be centered across the southwestern CONUS where it will remain positioned through Wednesday, before beginning its migration eastward back over the FA by Thursday as an upper level trough digs through northern CONUS. Very warm and above seasonal normal temperatures in the upper 90s to 105 degrees are expected Tuesday through Friday. This will lead to heat advisory level concerns Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly off the Caprock where heat indices are near 105 degrees. It will be interesting to see how much moisture we will be able to retain this week with dewpoints over the past week well above normal for this time of year. At this time, we will opt out of any heat headlines in this forecast package given the uncertainty on if moisture will be able to hold to sustain 105 degree criteria values Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Regardless, it is going to be a very warm week across the FA with increasing thickness values each day, clear skies, and warm southerly flow. Expect temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the Caprock, while temperatures off the Caprock will range from the upper 90s to near 105 degrees. Remember to exercise caution if you have to be outside, especially during peak heating hours. Drink plenty of water and find shade when possible. Chances for precipitation remain in the forecast each afternoon/evening through the long-term period. Ridge riding storms will have the chance to track down the eastern side of the upper level ridge that is positioned off to our west, where they may track into portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. However, our best chance for more area-wide precipitation looks to be Wednesday and Friday evening where we will likely see some reinforced lift from weak FROPA passing through the FA. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions will persist at each terminal through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...07