Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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095 FXUS64 KLUB 212316 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 616 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 An upper-level ridge centered over Texas is expected to gradually move westward during the short term period. Surface moisture lingers across the forecast area, and showers are possible this afternoon and early evening across the northern South Plains and far southern TXPH. However, with the lack of synoptic forcing for convection, showers should taper off after sunset once diurnal heating is lost. Tomorrow morning, as the ridge becomes more firmly established over the CWA, the southeasterly low-to-mid level flow that has sustained Today`s moist environment will begin to slowly become southwesterly. Saturday`s morning lows are expected to be mild, but warming from downsloping winds should return high temperatures to the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to retrograde westward on Sunday and through early next week as the broad, larger-scale troughing over the western U.S. attenuates into a zonal regime as the progressive flow pattern shifts into Canada. At the surface, a diffuse troughing pattern will exist in response to the leeward pressure falls associated with weak cyclogenesis in northeastern New Mexico and as frontolysis occurs across the south-central Great Plains. The initially veered surface flow will back to the south and south-southeast on Sunday while remaining light at around 10 mph. High temperatures were raised a few degrees, particularly across the Rolling Plains, for Sunday afternoon to align with the recent MOS guidance as triple-digit temperatures are forecast across those locales beneath the near-neutral to slightly-positive geopotential height tendencies. The CWA will remain within the barotropic airmass through the remainder of the forecast period as the mid/upper-level ridge stalls in the vicinity of or west of the CWA on Monday into Tuesday. There is considerable agreement in this synoptic-scale evolution across all global NWP guidance suites, and near-triple-digit temperatures continue to be forecast mid-week across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains. Heat index values may near 105 degrees across the eastern zones on Tuesday and Wednesday amidst southerly, low-level flow beneath the right exit-region to the anticyclonically-curved, 250 mb jet streak. Modification of tropical moisture should occur as it advects around the western and northern periphery of the stout ridging aloft, with the potential for thunderstorms (some severe) returning during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday through Thursday across the Caprock and into the Rolling Plains. The mean storm motion vector will be augmented by the belt of high-level, northwesterly flow associated with the exit-region to the 250 mb jet streak; and the anemic, mid-level flow would foster a slow movement of cells that would be governed by propagation amidst the reservoir of high PWAT content. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any convective episode during the middle part of next week. NWP guidance is also in agreement with a longitudinal extension and phasing of the amplified, subtropical ridge over the North Atlantic, with the potential for easterly trade winds to shift into central and western Texas beyond the scope of the long-term period. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period. Winds will diminish this evening and eventually veer to the southwest by morning. Winds will become breezy at all terminals late tomorrow afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DF LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...58