Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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064 FXUS64 KLUB 271145 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 645 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The center of an upper-level ridge will expand eastward today but be shunted a bit south thanks to a quick moving low across the Northern Rockies. This will knock heights down a bit over the forecast area today which when combined with our slightly cooler start to the day, will allow afternoon high temperatures to be near to slightly cooler than yesterday. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s across the far southern Texas Panhandle (where rainfall occurred yesterday) to near 105 degrees across the southern Rolling Plains. Winds will be out of the south today and increase this afternoon with sustained wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. While these winds won`t be southeasterly like yesterday they will still help to keep surface moisture in place across the forecast area hence muggy conditions are expected once again. The combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat index values up to 109 degrees across the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle hence another Heat Advisory has been issued for this area from 1 pm until 8 pm today. If surface dewpoints fail to mix out once again this afternoon then the Heat Advisory may need to be expanded westward. The area will also be drier today as a capping inversion is expected to remain in place across the forecast area which will prevent widespread thunderstorm development. However, isolated thunderstorm development may be possible across the northern Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle this afternoon as any left over boundary from the morning convection could serve as a focus and allow the cap to be overcome. If that occurs, modestly steep mid- level lapse rates will allow for MLCAPE values of around 2000 J/Kg with effective shear values around 25 kts which would allow for at least organized clusters of storms to develop. The main hazard with any storm that develops would be the potential for damaging straight line winds. With the loss of daytime heating, thunderstorms will diminish leading to a quiet but warm night across the forecast area with low temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The upper level ridge over the region will begin to flatten Friday as an upper level trough over northern CONUS scoots through portions of the High Plains. This will allow flow aloft to become more zonal where it will remain relatively weak through the weekend. Sadly the upper level ridge and associated high pressure will begin to rebuild rather quickly over portions of North Texas by early next week where it will stick around through the mid-week before it begins its eastward track into portions of the southeastern US. Surface winds on Friday will shift out of the southwest becoming breezy across the Caprock as the pressure gradient tightens as a lee cyclone digs into portions of the northern Texas Panhandle. These breezy southwest winds will help boost temperatures into the triple digits once again Friday. Given we saw high temperatures in the low to mid 100s on the Caprock and up to 108 off the Caprock on Wednesday, we may see even warmer temperatures than that Friday given thickness values will be slightly higher. Knowing this, decided to nudge temperatures warmer Friday with the NBM 75th percentile. As the ridge begins to flatten through the weekend we will see a slight reprieve from these triple digit temperatures, besides a few locations off the Caprock who may see localized triple digit temperatures. Sadly, this will be a rather small and quick cool down with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s still expected this weekend. As the ridge build back over, temperatures will begin to warm once again with upper 90s and triple digits in the forecast through the remainder of the long term period, BOOO...! One minor change was made to the Friday precipitation forecast where an isolated (10%) mention of PoPs was added for portions of the South Plains and far south-central Texas Panhandle. Given low to mid level moisture is still expected to remain in place we may see a few thunderstorms develop off the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico as a subtle perturbation in the flow aloft tracks to our northeast. If thunderstorms develop and make it into our area, flow aloft looks to remain weak out of the southwest, storms would likely remain sub- severe given the lack of instability in place. Better chances for precipitation arrive this weekend, however a few caveats remain that could potentially limit thunderstorm development/activity. The first caveat being the positioning of the upper level high pressure system, this will dictate where the bulk of the moisture will reside as it wraps around its center. As it stands, latest model guidance suggest that most of the moisture will remain well to our north and west. Secondly, forecast soundings suggest a decent capping inversion in place over the region with subsidence at the surface and aloft which could limit thunderstorm development. Lastly, our best source of lift looks to come from a very weak front tracking southward from the Texas Panhandle Friday night. Latest guidance has this boundary stalling just north of the FA which would allow for a drier forecast to unfold. If these caveats are able to be overcome, we could see some strong to sub-severe thunderstorms develop this weekend. The forecast will begin to dry out through the beginning of next week as the upper level ridge builds back over. However, the future is looking bright for increased precipitation chances by midweek as the upper level ridge shifts eastward and an upper level trough digs through the Intermountain West. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Showers will continues at Childress for the first few hours of this TAF period however conditions should remain VFR. VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period at LBB and PVW. Winds will turn southerly late this morning and become a bit breezy through the afternoon. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ026-032-038-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...58