339
FXUS64 KLUB 231910
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Light and variable winds this afternoon as a weak surface ridge
passes across the forecast area into central Texas. Winds will
become southerly by this evening and bring back low-level moisture
into the southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains.
Low clouds may fill in across the aforementioned area, but
confidence is low on the overall extent of this cloud deck. In the
wake of the recent trough axis, a shortwave will dig into the
Central and Southern Plains tonight into tomorrow. A weak lee low
will develop across eastern Colorado tonight and push south into
West Texas tomorrow. Winds will stay mostly south-southwesterly and
light through the morning hours tomorrow ahead of a cold front that
will enter the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern South and
Rolling Plains during the afternoon hours. Clear, sunny skies ahead
of the front and downsloping winds will bring back above normal
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and a few spotty lower 90s off
the Caprock. A few isolated showers and storms may develop along the
frontal boundary as it pushes southward through the afternoon,
mainly across the far southeast Texas Panhandle into the Rolling
Plains. A storm could become strong with gusty winds the main
threat, but overall severe weather is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of the Rolling
Plains from late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as a
cold front moves southward through the region. At the beginning of
the period, the mid/upper-level pattern across the Lower 48 will
begin to significantly amplify via the intrusion of an intense,
anticyclonically-curved 250 mb jet streak translating across Canada,
with its downstream tranche and related exit regions nosing
southward over the Mississippi River Basin. On Tuesday night, the
CWA will be positioned beneath the right-exit region of this 250 mb
jet streak, and largely within the inflection point of the sharply
cyclonic, positively-tilted trough with its base pivoting over the
Ozark Mountains; and the amplifying, subtropical ridge over the
Intermountain West. Passage of the mid-level and surface cold front
will occur during this time, with isolated storms possible along the
front across the Rolling Plains as it moves southward during the
nighttime hours in Wednesday.

PoPs were trimmed further downward from the blended initialization
owing to the expectation for NVA to advect in quickly overhead, but
remnant frontogenetical forcing, in addition to a residual EML and
available moist ascent in the pre-frontal sector, yields some degree
of confidence to maintain at least isolated PoPs through the early
morning hours Wednesday before storm chances wane entirely prior to
sunrise. Severe storms are not expected Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Post-frontal pressure rises will not be strong as
the front will begin to lose its baroclinity with only a weak
surface anticyclone forming in its wake, thus winds will remain
light post-FROPA, though high temperatures on Wednesday will be
about 5-8 degrees cooler than Tuesday.

Global NWP guidance suites are in agreement with the development of
a pseudo-Omega Block pattern developing across the U.S. by mid-week
and lasting through at least the end of the week, with the eastern
periphery of the subtropical ridge eclipsing the High Plains. Dry
and warm conditions are reflected as persistence forecasting will
yield similar boundary-layer profiles each day and night amidst
light winds. Temperatures will also cool off into the middle 50s
through the end of the period.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Light and variable winds this afternoon with a passing surface
high before winds become predominantly south-southwest and remain
less than 10 knots through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...11