Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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401 FXUS64 KLUB 250851 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 351 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Not a lot of change in the overall pattern is noted over the region for today and tonight relative to the previous 24 hours. Upper level high pressure remains anchored over New Mexico and Arizona. A few subtle changes include the potential expansion of the ridge northward over Colorado which would favor a more northerly mid level flow over the western counties while farther east across the eastern half of the forecast area should retain a bit more of a westerly component to its mid level flow. This would come into play should thunderstorms develop in the low level theta-e ridge axis extending from east-central New Mexico to the western Texas Panhandle and the along a weak frontal boundary that could make its way into the Oklahoma and northern Texas panhandles. Resultant mid level flow combined with expected surface regime would favor a south to southwest movement for western storms and south to southeast for storms that form farther eastward along the surface front or even south of that in a convectively unstable airmass (inhibition allowing). The forecast has handled the western convection well for several days, but CAMs have just recently begun suggesting the other area of concern as having an okay chance of maturing into a long- lived MCS. Will add a slight chance mention to the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area for the 00-06Z time frame. Regarding today`s heat, there could be a slight uptick in temperatures relative to yesterday, especially to the west as areas to the east will be offset some by increased low level moisture with dew point temperatures 24-hour delta of 3-5 degrees. This combo will favor a period of 2-4 hours where heat index values reach 105-107 degrees, particularly along the Prairie Dog Town Fork from the mouth of Palo Duro Canyon through Childress County. The areal extent of the advisory issued yesterday afternoon looks fine at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Major headline of the extended forecast is that the heat is on! The upper level ridge and 595mb dam associated high pressure is forecasted to be centered over central New Mexico Wednesday morning. The upper level high will begin to extend eastward into portions of the Texas Panhandle Thursday, then flattening by Friday as an upper level trough digs through parts of the northern CONUS. This will allow for weak northwest flow over the region through Thursday, before more zonal flow aloft prevails Friday through the weekend. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be unseasonably hot for this time of year in the upper 90s to near 100 on the Caprock, while areas off the Caprock will see temperatures in the triple digits. Friday looks to be the hottest of the week, only by a few degrees compared to Wednesday, as the upper level high positions itself overhead and winds shift out of the southwest as surface troughing develops in southeastern CO. Although Friday looks to be the hottest, Wednesday poses the biggest concern for Heat Advisory level conditions with increased amounts of moisture expected to remain locked in place with dewpoints across our eastern zones in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures look to "cool" down slightly through the weekend as the upper level ridge breaks down and thickness values begin to decrease. However, it will still be warm in the mid to upper 90s. Northwest flow aloft, a plume of monsoonal moisture wrapping around the center of the high pressure system, and a weak front pushing through may be enough forcing for thunderstorms to develop along the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. Storms would then track southeastward into portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. Another chance for precipitation chances will return for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle on Friday as a subtle shortwave trough to our north develops and another weak front passes through. The secondary push of the front in addition to increased PWAT values above 1.5", as represented by ECMWF and GFS ensembles, suggest a more moist weekend in store for the region. However, some deterministic and ensembles depict the front stalling to our north which would allow for a drier forecast to unfold across the region. Given weekend PoPs look to remain up in the air, we will let the NBM PoPs (which are trending downward from previous runs) go for the time being. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...07