Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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663 FXUS64 KLUB 222328 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 628 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A typical summertime pattern will continue through the rest of the weekend. Upper level ridging currently over the lower Mississippi River Valley will continue to shift west tonight and will settle over central Texas on Sunday. A minor short wave moving over top the ridge on Sunday will bring a slight weakness in the height fields from northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. This may initiate some very isolated convection in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle on Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, the increase in heights/thickness values aloft will bring warmer temperatures to the region on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The forecast remains on track with little change necessitated for the afternoon package and a continuation of the slight, downward trend in PoPs throughout the week. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-level pattern will feature an expansion of a 592 dam subtropical ridge across the southern U.S., with the 250 mb anticyclone becoming centered over northern Chihuahua and southern New Mexico as the corresponding, near-zonal jet streak at its apex translates across the central Rocky Mountains. At the surface, breezy, southerly flow will evolve by Monday afternoon as lee cyclogenesis occurs in the west-central High Plains in response to the jet streak aloft. Boundary-layer mixing should be capped to around 700 mb owing to the magnitude of subsident air aloft, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 90s across most of the CWA and to the century mark for locales nearest the 100th meridian. Heat stress will gradually increase beyond Monday across the Rolling Plains as overnight lows will struggle to fall below the upper 70s, and some locations in the Rolling Plains may observe lows near 80 degrees on Tuesday morning while temperatures cool off farther west up on the Caprock Escarpment. Amplification of the mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to occur by mid-week, with its amplitude modulated by the presence of either a barotropic low or narrow, but open, mid-level trough west of Baja California. There remains unity among the global NWP guidance suites with the center of the mid- and upper-level anticyclone remaining stalled over the southern Rocky Mountains. Return flow will be left intact at the surface as a result, with the right exit-region of the 250 mb, anticyclonically-curving jet streak nosing over the TX PH. Hot surface temperatures near or in excess of 100 degrees are expected each afternoon from Tuesday through Friday across the CWA, and the plume of middle-upper 60 degree dewpoints will lead to afternoon heat indices rising to near between 103-106 degrees across the Rolling Plains. (Criteria for a Heat Advisory are temperatures or heat indices between 105-109 degrees for the Rolling Plains.) Farther west, deeper boundary-layer mixing will cause temperatures to peak in the upper 90s throughout the week. PoPs have been lowered slightly from the previous prognostications for areas across the extreme southern TX PH and South Plains, and the best potential for diurnally-driven, slow-moving thunderstorms continues to be across the extreme southwestern TX PH based off the position of the 250 mb anticyclone and jet streak. Individual and area-averaged soundings indicate tall, skinny CAPE profiles of at least 1,000 J/kg; however, warming of the mid-levels should temper convective organization as cells propagate out of the northwest. Otherwise, doldrum-like conditions are expected for the entire period as the core of the subtropical ridge wobbles across the State of Texas. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR will prevail at all sites through this TAF period with modest southwest winds continuing. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...30