Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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330 FXUS64 KLUB 230751 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 251 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Similar weather expected today as yesterday with the upper level high positioning itself over the region this afternoon. This will lead to yet another day of dry and warmer conditions across the FA. 850mb temperatures around 25C to 30C, in addition to clear skies, rising heights, and southwest surface flow suggest temperatures slightly above the seasonal normal in the mid to upper 90s, where locations off the Caprock may even see temperatures in the triple digits. As we head into the overnight hours, another mild night is in store with temperatures in the upper 60 across the Caprock and mid 70s off the Caprock. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The center of upper level high pressure will finish its migration westward by midday Monday, taking up a location over the desert southwest. The eastern part of the ridge will extend to the middle Gulf Coast but amplification of the flow over the CONUS will expand the ridge northward over the Colorado Rockies while see a trough dig into the southeastern CONUS. A significant upper level trough will move over the west coast with the bulk of its energy associated with a closed low over the northern and Canadian Rockies. This in turn will break down the ridge and shunt it eastward toward the end of the week/forecast period. The biggest question this morning is on precipitation potential through the period with the ability of the atmosphere to convect on the higher terrain to our northwest the biggest question with the ECMWF remaining mostly dry while the GFS and WRF-NAM are more bullish and then more robust with the ability of the convection to move southeastward into the forecast area. This would be the main mechanism Tuesday through Thursday before the breakdown of ridge potentially allows a cold front to make it to the forecast area with it possibly being the focus for thunderstorms either in the forecast area or to the west with subsequent translation eastward. NBM again holding mainly slight chance PoPs across the northwestern counties during the evening hours still looks reasonable given the uncertainty. Regarding temperatures, it will be interesting to see how much a more moist and greener surface has on temperatures with the increasing heights and thicknesses as upper level high pressure moves across and then just west of the forecast area. Forecast heat indices are still near Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) east of the Caprock escarpment several afternoons. Forecast sensitivity to temperature and dew point temperature will be key to future heat headlines later this week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12