Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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888 FXUS64 KLUB 211721 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The upper level high currently positioned over the ArkLaTex region will continue its westward progression into the South Plains region through the short-term period. As this high pushes closer to the region, expect thickness values to rise, influencing warmer temperatures than previous. However, increased moisture will remain locked in place this afternoon with moist southerly winds prevailing at the surface through 700 mb. This moist return flow in addition to remnant moisture from TS Alberto will allow for cloud cover and lingering showers to continue this morning across portions of the western South Plains before tracking into the far southwestern Texas Panhandle by the late morning and afternoon hours. Therefore, temperatures will remain cooler across areas where shower activity and cloud cover is expected, i.e. portions of the northern South Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle, in the 80s. While areas elsewhere, can expect warmer temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s as skies begin to clear. Shower activity is expected to come to an end by the evening hours as the upper level high expands over the region. Cloud cover will begin to diminish overnight, with mild overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Upper level high pressure that has been dominated the eastern CONUS this week will begin to retrograde westward through the weekend finally setting up over the Four Corners region by Monday with amplification of the flow over the CONUS as a trough sets up over the eastern CONUS toward midweek. Overall this will lead to warmer temperatures with highs back primarily to the upper 90s to around 100 for the majority of next week. Will keep the forecast a dry one through Monday with high pressure overhead. The trough digging to our east will bring a pattern more favorable for mainly nocturnal northwest flow thunderstorms coming out of northeastern New Mexico. NBM continues to respond to this with PoPs in the Tuesday to Thursday period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon, though brief bouts of MVFR conditions are possible at all terminals given the moist environment. Low clouds are less likely tomorrow morning as surface winds gain a westerly component and the low-levels gradually begin to dry out. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...DF