Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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495 FXUS64 KLZK 202312 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 612 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The upper level ridge over the area will be weakening during the short term period, as a closed low over southern CA lifts and moves off to the northeast toward the upper midwest. At the surface, a cold front will drop down and stall near the corner of NW Arkansas over the weekend. The upper flow will be nearly parallel to the front, so it should not make it down into the forecast area, at least in the short term. A few batches of showers and thunderstorms will occur over northern AR tonight, tomorrow, and again on Sunday. If the storms over northern AR tomorrow afternoon become a little more organized, it`s not out of the question that a few storms could make it into central AR. The likelihood of that, however, is low at the moment. Temperatures tomorrow will be about the same as today, and a few degrees lower on Sunday. We have a heat advisory in effect for central AR westward up the River Valley today, and the dewpoints look to be a bit lower tomorrow...so I will not be issuing any advisories with this package. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Significant changes are expected across the state at the start of the period. H500 trough across the Central Plains will continue its way toward the Great Lakes which will compress the srn H500 ridge southward. At the sfc, a cold front will make its way across the state from Mon-Tue. This front will usher in cooler temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the week. Highs on Monday could be quite interesting as the front bisects the area from SW to NE, leading to 70s F across NW AR while southeast portions of the state climb into the 90s F. Through the middle to later part of next week, a second mid-level trough looks to dive S-SE from the Northern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs it may intensify and become cutoff just north of the state as H500 ridges flank it to the east and west. At the sfc, ridging will settle in from the Great Lakes S-SW toward the state. This will lead to a period of fairly cool temperatures and some occasional rain chances/periods of cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Some convection will remain possible over the next couple hrs...mainly for NRN/NERN sections...then coverage should decrease. Expect dominant VFR conditions through this TAF period. Some spotty convection may again be possible on Sat afternoon...with best chances across NRN AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 71 93 69 92 / 10 20 0 20 Camden AR 70 96 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 70 92 69 89 / 20 30 10 30 Hot Springs AR 72 97 71 94 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 74 96 73 95 / 0 10 0 0 Monticello AR 70 96 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 69 97 69 93 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 69 92 69 90 / 30 40 10 30 Newport AR 70 92 69 91 / 10 10 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 71 95 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 71 96 70 93 / 20 10 10 10 Searcy AR 70 94 69 93 / 10 10 0 10 Stuttgart AR 71 94 71 93 / 10 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-044- 121-122-130-138-230-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...62